NFL: Week 14 Picks

Carolina remained undefeated in week 13, but it took a huge second half to do so.  Meanwhile in the AFC, there’s a three way tie for the best record at 10-2 between Denver, Cincinnati and New England, who managed to lose their second straight game and fall out of a bye if the season ended today.

Lucky for them, and us, we still have plenty of football left.  I moved to 109-82 in my picks this season with a 10-6 mark in week 13.

Thursday Night Football

  • Vikings @ Cardinals: Minnesota couldn’t make a move in week 13, losing badly to a streaking Seahawks team. They allowed the Packers to get back into first place.  As for the Cards, they are sitting comfortably in the two spot in the NFC and still have a three game in lead in their division.  Both teams have been solid in all phases all season, but Arizona holds a huge edge in the passing game. Until Teddy Bridgewater can consistently put up big numbers in the air, this team is going to be one dimensional on offense.  And against an above the fourth best rush defense in the league, Minnesota is going to need more from their second year QB.  So as much as I like this Vikings team, I like the home team even more.  ARIZONA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Bills @ Eagles: Both team are coming off nice wins against playoff hopefuls, while keeping their own playoffs alive.  Philly took down the Patriots, giving them their second loss in a row, a rarity in the Tom Brady era.  Buffalo evened up their record taking down the Texans, who remain tied atop the AFC South.  This is another game where both teams have been inconsistent all season, hence the .500 and below records.  I have a lot more faith in the Bills defense however, so give me the road team to move above .500, while the Eagles drop out of first in the East. BUFFALO WINS
  • 49ers @ Browns: Two of the worst teams in the league square off this weekend in Cleveland.  The Browns currently hold the worst record, with San Fran sitting two games better than them.  The Niners hurt their “chances” at the top draft pick when they took down the Bears in OT.  Neither team has had the season they would’ve hoped for and while both teams have a lot of on and off the field questions, I think the Niners find a way to pull out another game this week.  SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Lions @ Rams: St. Louis started off the season with a lot of promise, but have totally collapsed in the second half.  The opposite can be said for Detroit, who took two months to get a win, and have looked a lot more like the team we expected here the past six weeks or so.  Both enter with 4-8 records, but the Lions are the hotter team, and the more talented team.   DETROIT WINS
  • Saints @ Buccaneers: Early on this season, both of these NFC South teams looked like they’d be in-contention for the number 1 pick.  And while New Orleans still has an outside shot, both teams have shown glimpses of hope.  Tampa Bay knew there would be struggles with a rookie QB, but the number 1 overall pick in Jameis Winston has his team at .500 and in a spot for a possible wild card.  Drew Brees and company had gotten to .500 after a very rough start, and despite a two-touchdown lead on the undefeated Panthers in week 13, the Saints are in the middle of a four-game slide.  So wins this division match-up? While the Bucs running game is one of the best in the league, and the Saints defense hasn’t been anything to write home about, I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the road team to pick up their fifth win this weekend.  NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Titans @ Jets: The Jets needed OT in week 13, but they kept their playoff hopes alive against their stadium mates.  As for Tennessee, they remain in line for another prime draft pick with a 3-9 record. While the Titans have the ability to score in bunches, they don’t have the ability to stop good teams most days. And the Jets are a good team that can beat you in several ways.  That’s why I like the Jets to better their chances at a wildcard berth this week. NEW YORK WINS
  • Steelers @ Bengals: Pittsburgh has been the most resilient team in the league this season, sitting in a playoff spot in the competitive AFC despite stretches with Ben Roethlisberger and their top flight running back Le’Veon Bell.  But they still enter action three games behind the Bengals for the AFC North, and a Cincinnati win this week gives them that crown.  This should be a fun game, and despite two good defenses, could be a high scoring one.  But whether it is a shoot out or not, I think the Bengals get the job done and move closer to a much needed first round bye. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Colts @ Jaguars: Neither team has a winning record, but one team has a shot at a division crown.  Indianapolis, despite a bad start to the season and losing their Pro-Bowl caliber QB remain in a fight for the AFC South crown.  Jacksonville is just playing out the season, preparing for another high draft pick.  Sure the Jags have shown promise, but they’ve also shown how young they are.  Indy and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck have something to prove and fight for, so give me the Colts to move above .500 here in week 14. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Chargers @ Chiefs: San Diego has been a disappointment this season, on both sides of the football, while their counterparts have rebounded from a rough start and find themselves in the playoff hunt. Kansas City has won six straight, and are the second hottest team in the league.  Their defense has been great all season, and now their offense has closed the gap.  They’re playoff vets, and not a team to be taken lightly.  The Chargers can definitely play spoiler with Philip Rivers under center, I just don’t think they will.  KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Redskins @ Bears: Washington had a chance to take hold of the NFC Least in week 13, instead they lost a strange game to Dallas.  Chicago lost another game late, this time to San Francisco.  If the NFC East wasn’t so bad, this would just be a game between two bad teams looking for better draft position.  Instead, it has playoff implications too.  And while Washington has been a lot better in the second half of the season, I like what the Bears have been able to do in the ground game of late.  So give me the Bears to make things more difficult and hard to define in the NFC East. CHICAGO WINS
  • Falcons @ Panthers: After starting off the season on fire, the Falcons have come crashing back to earth in a big way.  Not only are they on a five-game losing streak they are no behind two teams in the NFC South.  And a road tilt against the league’s last undefeated team isn’t a great confidence boaster.  Cam Newton is playing like an MVP and the defense is playing like champions.  Will Carolina stay undefeated through the regular season? Who knows. But unless Atlanta stops turning the ball over and gets the offense of weeks 1-4 back, the Panthers should stay undefeated another week.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Ravens:  Which bird will fly highest in week 14?  That’s easy.  The Seahawks are on fire, while the Ravens wings were clipped weeks ago.  The NFC should be scared with how great Seattle’s offense has looked in recent weeks.  And despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t been horrible defensively, there’s no way they can compete with what the reigning NFC champs are bringing on either side of the ball, not this year.  SEATTLE WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Raiders @ Broncos: Another week, another win for Denver, who enters week 14 as the two seed in the AFC.  As for the Raiders, who sit two games out of the playoffs, they are just looking to get to .500.  This AFC West match-up should still be a good one, but I don’t think it will end in any other way but with another Broncos win.  Denver’s defense is too good, and the Raiders offense too inconsistent. DENVER WINS
  • Cowboys @ Packers: 4-8 versus 8-4 and yet somehow, both teams have a shot at their division.  It’s the sad state of the NFC East that a Dallas team on QB number 3 can say that, but after Matt Cassel picked up his first win in a Cowboys uniform Monday against the Redskins, they are just a game out.  Meanwhile, the Packers wild finish in Detroit on Aaron Rodgers game ending Hail Mary, coupled with the Vikings loss has them back atop the NFC North.  Both teams want this game, but Green Bay needs it.  The Packers can’t miss the playoffs after tehir 6-0 start, while Dallas should really focus on getting better in the draft and looking ahead to getting Tony Romo back for next season.  Dallas and their fans probably don’t see it that way, but the knowledge they can win this division and be this bad, should tell them a healthy, revamped team in 2016 could go far.  Besides, Rodgers and company have been bad at home lately, something they’re not used to.  I can’t see another letdown for them. GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Texans: It’s a huge AFC battle on Sunday Night with playoff implications on both sides.  As previously mentioned, both teams took unexpected losses in week 13.  After starting 10-0, the Pats are now in danger of losing a bye, as both the Bengals and Broncos enter the week with identical 10-2 records.  Houston is .500 and could have a shot at having the AFC South all to themselves if the Colts fall this week. I though the Pats would come out angry last week, and instead were embarrassed by the below .500 Eagles.  Give me an angry Tom Brady to get back on track and hurt Houston’s playoff chances in week 14.   NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Dolphins: One team still has a shot at the division, while the other has a lot of work to do just to get into the playoff discussion and stay out of the cellar in their own division.  Both teams enter action with 5-7 records. Of New York’s seven losses, six of them have come by one score (18 combined points), meaning if they’d converted even half of those, they’d be 8-4 and be well on their way to the NFC East crown. Instead, they’re in a three way tie for 1st.  As for Miami, they’re up, yet mostly down season has them looking up at everyone else in the AFC East.  I keep doing this every week, but for a team led by a coach/QB tandem that have won championships, in years where they were written off about this time, I’m going with New York one last time to save their season. NEW YORK WINS

 

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NFL: Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 is here, and as the temperature drops, the match-ups are heating up.

Last week I went 11-5, including 3-3 on Thanksgiving.

Thursday Night Football

  • Houston @ Jacksonville: This inst the best game to kick off the action, with two teams with a combined record of 5-18, but it’s nice to see the Jaguars on prime-time.  Early on you thought this would be an easy win for the Texans, but this once highly thought of Superbowl contender enters on a 10-game losing streak, while the Jags are playing much better in the 2nd half of the season.  I have picked Houston to win far too often this season, and I am going to do it again.  HOUSTON WINS

1PM Sunday Games

  • Minnesota @ Baltimore: The Vikings have looked a bit better of late, while the Ravens have played themselves back into the playoff picture.  Adrian Peterson is really the only weapon Minnesota has, while Baltimore has relied on their defense and superb kicker to keep them in games.  Give me Joe Flacco to keep his team in the hunt to defend their title. BALTIMORE WINS
  • Indianapolis @ Cincinnati: It’s a match-up of division leaders that boast very solid defenses.  The Colts have struggled in the 2nd half of the season, while the Bengals have looked good all year.  If the Colts can keep this one close, they have a chance, but if they give Andy Dalton and company a sizable early lead, I think the Bengals will clamp down and move closer to wrapping up the North. Indy is closer to a division crown in the South. CINCY WINS
  • Atlanta @ Green Bay: The Falcons finally snapped their losing streak, while the Packers haven’t won many games since losing Aaron Rodgers a few weeks back.  Green Bay could have their starting QB back, but they won’t know until later in the week.  Even if he doesn’t make it back under center, I think the Packers defense gets re-energized at home and get back on track and fight their way back to the top of the NFC North. GREEN BAY WINS
  • Cleveland @ New England: The Browns have gotten a lot out of receiver Josh Gordon of late, but they haven’t been able to turn it into wins.  The Patriots have had a couple weeks in a row of big comeback performances.  And I think their offense continues to come up big at home this week.  NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Oakland @ New York Jets: Two teams that aren’t very good right now. Oakland has more wins than last season, while the Jets have dropped out of a playoff spot with their 3-game losing streak.  Both teams have run games that can be potent, but the Jets defense has been pretty good despite the losing.  I think New York finds a way at home this week.  They have to in order to have a shot at the wild card.  NEW YORK WINS
  • Detroit @ Philadelphia: Two teams that lead their divisions (the eagles own a share) square off in Philly.  Both teams have been clicking on all cylinders to climb the division ladder.  Nick Foles has done nothing but win since taking over for Michael Vick.  But I think the Lions are a more complete team, and despite being on the road, I think they snap the Eagles 4 game win streak. DETROIT WINS
  • Miami @ Pittsburgh:  Two teams that have had up and down years, that still have an outside shot at a playoff berth.  The Dolphins are playing better following the bully scandal, and the Steelers have played better since their 0-4 start.  The Steelers have had more consistency on the ground, and I think Ben Roethlisberger is going to outplay Ryan Tannehill in this one to get the Steelers their 6th win. PITT WINS
  • Buffalo @ Tampa Bay: Two teams that just want to finish strong and hope to not finish last in their divisions.  The Bucs are winners of 3 of their last 4 and the Bills, are not.  The Bills promising start to the season ended when EJ Manuel went down early in the season.  The Bucs started out the season 0-8, and have rebounded to play better in the 2nd half.  That being said, I think the Bills go into Tampa and get a win on the strength of their run game. So give me the road game. BUFFALO WINS
  • Kansas City @ Washington: The Chiefs are on a downslide following a 9-0 start.  The defense suffered a lot of injuries in week 11 against Denver and it’s shown in their 3-game losing streak.  The Redskins continue to falter after a good 2012.  The Chiefs offense has played very well of late, after the defense carried them in the 1st half, and I think both sides come to get to stop the slide in the nation’s capital this week. Give me the 9-3 Chiefs to get back on track. KANSAS CITY WINS

4/4:25PM Sunday Games

  • Tennessee @ Denver: The Titans are playing for a wildcard spot, the Broncos are looking to move one step closer to a bye and the AFC West title.  The Titans defense has been pretty good this season, but their offense is just not enough to match Peyton Manning and all his weapons. DENVER WINS
  • St. Louis @ Arizona: These two NFC West foes boast very good defenses. And both have improved greatly from a year ago.  But I think the Cardials offense is much more consistent, and with a better chance at a playoff spot, I think the veteran Carson Palmer gets his team a home win. ARIZONA WINS
  • New York Giants @ San Diego: A couple of 5-7 teams square off in California this weekend.  The Giants have shaken off a horibble start to the season to win 5 of their last 6.  The Chargers have been up and down all season, something we’ve grown accustom with Philip Rivers led teams.  This game not only keeps the winner in the hunt for a playoff spot, it also means something more, dating back to the 2004 draft when Eli Manning was drafted number 1 by San Diego and didn’t want to play there. So who wins? Give me the Giants to continue their comeback from 0-6. NEW YORK WINS
  • Seattle @ San Francisco:  If the 49ers want any chance of winning the division, they have to win this game.  Both teams are coming off big wins at home.  The Niners made easy work of the Rams, while the Seahawks made a statement to the whole league that they are true Superbowl contenders.  And for that reason, give me the Hawks to continue to move closer to wrapping up the number 1 seed in the NFC. SEATTLE WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Carolina @ New Orleans: One of the better games you will see all regular season.  It’s a battle for the NFC South.  A top flight defense and a team on an 8 game win streak in one corner.  A playoff perennial who was embarrassed in prime-time last week, that looks to rebound in their own home-field advantage in the other.  Who prevails?  The Panthers have had a number of close calls during the 8-game win-streak, and the Saints don’t lose at home often.  So I see New Orleans taking this one, with a very different result possible when the two face off in Carolina. NEW ORLEANS WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Dallas @ Chicago: This is an interesting ending to week 14.  The Cowboys are on the upswing, the Bears, on the down.  But neither team has a shut down defense, and both have run games that can go off at any moment.  The Boys don’t have a playoff spot locked down, and the Bears are still in the hunt for one.  Tony Romo has never been very good in December, but I think he leads his team to a road win in this one. DALLAS WINS

That’s it.  Enjoy all the fun in week 14.