NFL: Week 4 Picks

5 undefeated teams remain as we head into week 4 of the NFL season.  I went 9-7 a week ago, bringing my season total to 26-22.

Bye Week: Philadelphia and Green Bay

Thursday Night Football

  • Dolphins @ Bengals: Miami barely squeaked by the Browns last week, while the Bengals were beat down by the defending champs at home.  The Dolphins got a big day from Jarvis Landry, but inconsistency continues to plague Ryan Tannehill, who threw a pick six in the win. Cincinnati got their running game going, but still lost to 1-2 for the first time in five years.  After two very good weeks, Andy Dalton couldn’t do much against the Broncos defense. I like the Bengals at home with another good rushing game to get their second win of the season. CINCINNATI WINS

Sunday Morning Football 

  • Colts @ Jaguars: London here they come! Indianapolis got their first win of the season last week, while Jacksonville is still looking for theirs.  Andrew Luck has the uncanny ability to turn a bad day into a big day passing the ball, but the Jaguars defense isn’t the problem so far, so he’ll need help.  Blake Bortles on the other hand, has been pretty awful for Jacksonville in his third year under center. So what happens this weekend across the pond? Give me a cleaner day from Luck to lift the Colts. INDIANAPOLIS WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Bills @ Patriots: Three different quarterbacks have started for New England, but that hasn’t stopped the winning.  And as for the Bills, they got their first win over a team many think, myself included, are a playoff team destined for a deep run.  Both teams got big two-touchdown games out of their number 1 running backs, so look for another day of running the clock. The Patriots have to get through one more week without Tom Brady, and while they’ve done a great job doing so, and are very, very good at home, I’m taking the road team in this one. BUFFALO WINS
  • Titans @ Texans: It was a very bad week for Houston, who not only lost their Thursday game versus New England 27-0, they learned that JJ Watt re-injured his back and will be out the rest of the year.  Tennessee’s week wasn’t much better, as they scored just 10 points in their loss to Oakland. Both teams enter action having scored the same amount of points through 3 games, but of course that’s skewed with the Texans O-fer last weekend. Marcus Mariota and Brock Osweiler have both thrown 4 interceptions so far this season, so whoever can limit mistakes has the edge. A Titans win puts them in a tie for the division early.  But I don’t think they get it, because I like the Texans skill position players better. HOUSTON WINS
  • Lions @ Bears: The Lions are 1-2, but haven’t struggled in the passing game, as Matthew Stafford has found a new weapon in Marvin Jones after Calvin Johnson called it a career in the off-season.   The silver lining there for the 0-3 Bears is that their defense has actually done okay against the pass so far this season.  Chicago got a pretty good game out of Brandon Hoyer, who finished 30-49 for 317 yards, though most of that came with the game out of hand already. Both teams have the ability to get the points in the air, and with two middling defenses, that shouldn’t be a problem.  So this game will be won in the trenches, and the edge there lies with the Lions. DETROIT WINS
  • Panthers @ Falcons: Carolina is another team I thought would have a great season, but has disappointed so far.  Thanks to the struggles of the Panthers and the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta finds themself atop the division early on in the season.  This dispite allowing 31, 28 and 32 points in their first three games.  The Falcons may not be getting sustained success in their ground game early, they are getting it when it counts.  Tevin Coleman has just 110 yards on the ground, but has 4 rushing touchdowns, including 3 on Sunday in New Orleans. Carolina entered action red-hot at home dating back to 2014, but we shut down by a red-hot Vikings defense a week ago.  I still believe in the Panthers defense, and as hot as Atlanta has been, I think Carolina gets the win on the road. CAROLINA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Jets: The good news for Jets fans? Ryan Fitzpatrick can only be better than he was a week ago. The bad news? He has to be a lot better against the top defense in the league. After scoring just 3 points against L.A. in week 2, the Seahawks exercised some demons putting up 37 against the Niners.  Russell Wilson was hobbled in the game, but still managed to leave with a nice lead.  Big games from Christine Michael and Doug Baldwin helped get the offense back on track.  New York can solace in the fact that they have had a pretty good run game all season, and while some of it came in garbage time, Seattle did allow the Niners to get over 130 yards on the ground, finding pay dirt twice.  This shouldnt be as ugly for the Jets as it was last week, but it will still be a loss. SEATTLE WINS
  • Raiders @ Ravens: Baltimore finds itself among the undefeated teams heading into week 4, in large part thanks to their defense and a good day from kicker Justin Tucker.  The Ravens are second in total defense through 3 weeks of play.  Their opponents won their 2nd game by  forcing three turnovers, with a sack after entering week 3 having allowed the Saints and Falcons to walk all over them.  So based on defenses, Baltimore should have an easy win.  But I actually like Oakland’s offense a lot more, and as someone who thinks this is a playoff team, I’ll take the Raiders in the upset. OAKLAND WINS
  • Browns @ Redskins: Cleveland should’ve gotten their first win of the season in Miami a week ago, but an inability to stop the air attack, and three missed field goals left them at 0-3. They gave themselves a shot, but couldn’t take it.  Cody Kessler’s first career start wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t very good for Cleveland, though at this point, coming out healthy is huge for the Browns. Washington did get their first win, taking down the Giants on the road. After a couple lackluster offensive weeks, Kirk Cousins let it loose and got a number of big plays in the passing game to help get that first win and move back in the right direction to defend their NFC East title.  So can the Browns get their first win this week? Yes. Will they? I don’t think so. They stayed in last week thanks to mistakes by Tannehill, but Cousins won’t make those same mistakes. WASHINGTON WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Broncos @ Buccaneers: The Superbowl Champs are showing no signs of slowing down as they look to start the season 4-0.  Denver got off to a slow start last week against the Bengals, but came on strong late thanks to a big day from rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian.  Siemian threw four touchdown passes, including two in the fourth quarter for the win.  Not to be outdone, the Broncos are a top flight defense that held down Andy Dalton and their rushing attack.  They’ve got another tough test when they take on Jameis Winston this weekend.  The Bucs 2nd year quarterback is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes so far with 8, though he has thrown six picks to.  It won’t be a blowout, none of Denver’s games really have been, but it will be another win for the Broncos. DENVER WINS
  • Rams @ Cardinals: I’m shocked at the start the Cardinals are having at just 1-2. Carson Palmer has had a bad TD-turnover ratio through 3 weeks.   Arizona isn’t getting quite out of David Johnson on the ground, while their defense is allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game.  This is as good a week as any to get back to what they want to do in all phases as they take on their division rival Rams, who find themselves tied atop the division at 2-1.  Los Angeles has rebounded nicely from a shutout on opening day, winning their last two games.  The Rams tend to play up or down to their opponents, evident by a 9-3 home win over Seattle and a 37-32 shootout on the road in Tampa Bay.  Going off those results,  I’ll take the Cardinals at home in what should be a close game throughout between these two West foes. ARIZONA WINS
  • Cowboys @ Niners: Dallas couldn’t have asked for more from rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot through three weeks.  The Tony Romo-less Cowboys were a game-winning field-goal away from being 3-0 right now. Dez Bryant has a hairline fracture in his knee but is still expected to play this weekend.  San Francisco was manhandled in week 3, and still isn’t making a change back to Colin Kaepernick.  The biggest thing the Niners have going for them is Carlos Hyde has looked pretty good.  I like what the Caowboys have done this season, but I have a feeling about San Fran this week. It might be a bad feeling, but I’m rolling with it. SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Saints @ Chargers: It’s still early, but the Saints need to start picking up some wins quickly if they want to make the playoffs as I predicted they would as a wildcard team in the NFC.  The offense hasn’t been the problem.  Drew Brees is already over a 1,000 yards passing, with an 8-1 touchdown to interception ratio, though that one interception last week was a fourth quarter pick six for Brees.  New Orleans defense hasn’t been been able to stop anyone, as they’ve allowed the 2nd most total yards.  Worst at stopping the run, that’s where the Chargers will need to take advantage this week.  But without Danny Woodhead, San Diego needs Melvin Gordon to get going, so this is the perfect opportunity for that.  I like Philip Rivers, but I like Drew Brees more.  Give me the road team to get win number 1 this week. NEW ORLEANS WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Chiefs @ Steelers: What a defensive performance put on by the Chiefs this past week! Two defensive touchdowns and six interceptions helped Kansas City get the easy win over the Jets.  The offense wasn’t great, but they didn’t need to be with that showing on defense.  Alex Smith continued to show his game management skills, and why Travis Kelce is one of the better tight ends in the league right now. They’ve got a desperate Steelers team thsi week, who didn’t score a touchdown in a week 3 beatdown by the Eagles.  After two very good weeks, DeAngelo Williams was stymied on the ground, so the rushing attack will gladly welcome back Le’Veon Bell from suspension this week. The biggest test for the Kansas City defense will be stopping Antonio Brown, but I don’t think it will matter much even if he does have a big day. KANSAS CITY WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Vikings: This should be a battle of two unbeatens, but a late game collapse left the Giants at 2-1 heading into today.  Too many penalties, a couple late turnovers and allowing Washington to open up the field multiple times led to the home loss for New York.  They lost Shane Vereen to a triceps injury as well.  Eli Manning and company need to do more in the passing game, and they have the capability with three wide receivers.  The bad news for New York is that the Vikings are running on all cylinders right now.  Their defense has been relentless through three weeks, and despite losing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater before the season started, the offense has been very good.  Sam Bradford has come in and fit in better in two weeks then he’s done in the first few seasons of his career.  It’s going to be tough for the Giants on the road, but I like New York will figure things out and get back in the win column.  NEW YORK WINS
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NFL: Week 6 Predictions

Can’t believe it’s week 6 in the NFL already.

We’ve got two more teams on their bye: Atlanta and Miami.

Last week I went 7-7 in my picks, so let’s see if I can top that this week.

Thursday Night Football

  • New York Giants @ Chicago: I need to stop picking the Giants, who are bad in all 3 phases of the game right now.  But here are the Bears, losers of 2 straight where they’ve allowed 66 points.  Both teams are struggling, and their QBs just keep turning the ball over.  I have to give the edge to the home team here. CHICAGO WINS

1PM Sunday Games

  • Green Bay @ Baltimore: Both teams are coming off much-needed wins, but also wins where neither QB looked spectacular.  The run game for both seem to be turning around, but despite it being a road game, Aaron Rodgers has the edge over Joe Flacco in this one. GREEN BAY WINS
  • Cincinnati @ Buffalo: The Bills are down their starting quarterback, while the Bengals defense is on a high following a complete shutdown of the Patriots.  Buffalo will have to rely on their running back tandem of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to carry them.  While the Bengals have to hope Andy Dalton can find his rhythm.  CINCINNATI WINS
  • Detroit @ Cleveland: This is one of the more intriguing match-ups this week. Two 3-2 teams that pretty much no one had being over .500 at all this year let alone after week 5.  The Browns lost starter Brian Hoyer, but Brandon Weedon is healthy again.  While the Lions hope start wide-out Calvin Johnson can come back and help an offense which struggled a week ago.  I’m giving the home team the advantage here, thanks to a defense that has looked impressive early. CLEVELAND WINS
  • St. Louis @ Houston: Houston isn’t very good right now, while the Rams are coming off a nice win over the hapless Jaguars.  If the Texans want to make any type of run to get back into the  playoff picture, this is a game, at home, against another under .500 team that they have to win.  And I think they will, despite a possible QB controversy brewing following the benching of Matt Schaub in favor of TJ Yates late Sunday night against San Francisco.  Schaub starts and bounces back in a big way. HOUSTON WINS
  • Carolina @ Minnesota: The Vikings are coming off their bye, while the Panthers are coming off a bad performance against Arizona. Both are looking for their 2nd win of the season.  The Vikings have a new QB on the roster after signing Josh Freeman.  Cam Newton had one of his worst days as a starter Sunday.  The Vikings have log-jam at QB, as they now have Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Freeman as possible starters.  but Freeman is in no rush to take over the reigns, so Cassel will get the start Sunday after leading Minnesota to their first win before their bye week.  I think the uncertainty hurts, and the Panthers will pounce. CAROLINA WINS
  • Oakland @ Kansas City: The Raiders are feeling good after their Sunday Night win, but the Chiefs are feeling better sitting here at 5-0.  They got a scare from Tennessee last week, but at home this team is going to continue their huge bounce back from a disappointing 2012 season.  KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Pittsburgh @ New York Jets: The Steelers are coming off their bye and looking for win number 1.  But they face a tough test in a Jets team flying off a big win over Atlanta.  Ben Roethlisberger isn’t used to this losing, while the Jets aren’t used to winning.  I honestly can’t see the Steelers going 0-5 but New York’s defense is very good, and Geno Smith continues to grow.  I will probably regret it but I’m taking experience versus hot play. PITT WINS
  • Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay: With the drama surrounding Josh Freeman over, the Buccaneers look to pick up their 1st win of the year against the Eagles who picked up win number 2 last week.  Nick Foles is expected to start for the injured Michael Vick, but that worked out fine against New York, so no worries there.  PHILADELPHIA WINS

4/4:25PM Sunday Games

  • Jacksonville @ Denver: If ever there were a trap game, this would be it.  The beat up 0-5 Jags on the road against the seemingly unstoppable 5-0 Broncos?  Well, you know the saying any given Sunday?  It’s true, I just don’t see it being true on this Sunday. DENVER WINS
  • Tennessee @ Seattle:  This might be my favorite game of the week.  Most people probably didn’t have the Titans winning many games all season, yet here they are at 3-2.  And really they had a chance last week against the now 5-0 Chiefs.  The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the Colts, their first of the year.   I think the Titans can hang around again, but that 12th man is going to be the difference again. SEATTLE WINS
  • New Orleans @ New England: Two teams who are a combined 9-1?  Should be fun.  Tom Brady and co are coming off a rare no-touchdown effort, and I see them responding in a big way, handing the Saints their first loss. NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Arizona @ San Francisco:  This is another one of the more intriguing games of the week.  Both enter action off big wins and at 3-2 in a much improved NFC West.  If this game were in Cardinals territory I might give them the edge.  But home-field and a Niners team clicking in every facet of the game is too much to pick against.  SAN FRAN WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Washington @ Dallas: An NFC East battle that could help the Cowboys pull away, or just make things more jumbled in a down division.  Tony Romo is coming off the best game of his career, except for the only thing people will remember, which is the poor decision-making late that caused a turnover and led to a loss.  The Redskins are coming off a bye, and look to pick up their 2nd win of the year.  Anything can happen in division games, and I see this one being close until the end, but I think the boys bounce back at home. DALLAS WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Indianapolis @ San Diego: The Colts are really, really good.  The Chargers are very up and down.  If Phillip Rivers can stop with all the turnovers, this team maybe wouldn’t be so inconsistent.  I see it being a fairly close game, but as it tends to happen, Andrew Luck will do something awesome in the 4th quarter.  INDY WINS

So there you have it.  My week 6 picks.  Enjoy all the football action, and I’ll be back Monday with my thoughts on what went down.

MLB Postseason Predictions – ALDS

Two easy wins got the playoffs started last night.

NLDS Update:

  • The Cardinals lead the Pirates 1-0
  • The Dodgers lead the Braves 1-0

Now its time for the American League to open up play, as well as game 2 for each NLDS in today’s full slate of games.

 

In the first ALDS, familiar AL East foes face-off.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox 

  • Matt Moore (17-9, 3.29 ERA) vs Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75 ERA)

There are no secrets between these two division rivals, having played 19 games against each other in the regular season.  It’s a battle of southpaws who had very good seasons.   The Rays have two guys in Evan Longoria and Delmon Young who like hitting home runs in the postseason, while Boston had the best record in the league and know how to win in October.  Both teams have been to the World Series in the past 6 years, so this should be a fun series.  The Sox just hit .208 as a team against Tampa this year.

I like both starting rotations here, so I think it comes down to a battle of the bullpens.  In terms of closers, Koji Uehara was lights out to end the season for the Sox, and hasn’t allowed a run to Tampa in his last 16 innings.  While Rays closer Fernando Rodney is known to make you sweat.  Give me the AL East champs in a long, hard-fought series.

RED SOX IN 5 

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In tonight’s second ALDS, it’s a battle of division winners.

Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics

  • Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90 ERA) vs Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 ERA)

This is an intriguing game 1 match-up in today’s playoff night-cap.  You’ve got Scherzer, who’ll probably win the AL Cy Young, going against Colon, a 40-year-old former Cy Young winner.  Scherzer was huge for Detroit this year, especially early when their former Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander got off to a rare slow start.  Colon has revitalized his career in Oakland, and was great all year.

The Tigers were the AL representatives in the World Series last year, while the A’s are making their second straight postseason appearance after sneaking in last year.  Detroit has more pop in its lineup, with a combo of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  But don’t be surprised when Oakland’s bullpen carries them to the next round. I have much more faith late in games in the A’s than I do Detroit.

ATHLETICS IN 5

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Today’s postseason action gets started in the NL at 1PM.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

  • Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.22 ERA) vs Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97 ERA)

The Pirates look to bounce back from a 9-1 pummeling last night, while the Cards look to take a 2-0 lead before heading on the road to Pittsburgh.

As a I posted yesterday, I have CARDINALS IN 4

 

And finally, game 2 in Atlanta tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

  • Zach Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA) vs Mike Minor (13-9, 3.21 ERA)

The Dodgers made easy work of the NL East champs last night, and now send their other Ace to the hill looking to take a 2-0 lead back home.

Again, as posted yesterday, I have the DODGERS IN 4

Enjoy the full slate of Postseason action today.

MLB Postseason Predictions – NLDS

With the Wild Card games out of the way, let the Division Series begin.

The National League gets things started tonight, with the American League playing tomorrow.

NL Central opponents do battle in the first best-of-five match-up.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals

  • AJ Burnett (10-11, 3.30 ERA) vs Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94 ERA)

The pirates won their first playoff game in 21 years when they took down Cincinnati on Monday in their Wild Card match-up.  Now they look to keep the the good feeling going against a playoff perennial that knows what it takes to win in October.  That being said, it’s the first postseason series between the two clubs, so anything can happen.

It’s a good pitching match-up between 2 guys who have helped teams win in the postseason in the past.

The Pirates have used the long ball and a strong bullpen of late to get them into the playoffs.  While against Pittsburgh this year, Wainwright went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts, going seven innings each time out.

I see this being a close game, and a close series, but I think the Cardinals experience and home-field advantage wins out.

CARDINALS IN 4

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In NLDS number 2, it’s East meets West for two division winners.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

  • Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83 ERA) vs Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11ERA)

It wasn’t easy but the Dodgers took the west crown, while the Braves easily topped the East.  LA made an amazing 2nd half push to take their division.  They’re hot, young and don’t care what anyone thinks about them.  The Braves got off to a fast start, and cruised into October in a down NL East.

Kershaw is probably going to win the Cy Young again, and his teammate Zach Grienke was just as dominant in the second half push. The Braves weren’t challenged all year for their spot in the postseason, and i think that will hurt them, while LA fought from a big deficit early to overtake Arizona.

I think the Dodgers starting pitching top to bottom is better, and their a much more versatile lineup.

DODGERS IN 4

Enjoy the game 1’s tonight, and stay tuned for my ALDS preview coming tomorrow.

NFL: Week 5 Predictions

For what it’s worth, I was 8-7 last week (not great I know).  So here’s what I see happening in week 5.

Four more teams, who are a combined 2-14, are on their bye this week: Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers and the Redskins

Thursday Night Football

  • Buffalo @ Cleveland: Two teams coming off wins, and while the Browns have home-field, I think the run game for the Bills tips the scales. BUFFALO WINS

1PM Sunday Games:

  • Philadelphia @ New York Giants: Two teams that have 1 combined win.  If the Giants o-line can give Eli Manning any kind of time I think they win.  NFC East games are always fun, and usually closely contested, no matter the records going in.  The biggest test for New York will be stopping LeSean McCoy, the leagues leading rusher. I keep taking them, but this is probably the last time if they lose again. NEW YORK WINS
  • New England @ Cincinnati: I might regret this, but I say the Bengals bounce back in a big way at home, and hand the Pats their first loss of the year. CINCY WINS
  • Detroit @ Green Bay:  This is an intriguing match-up.  The Lions made a very good Chicago defense look bad, while the Packers are coming off their bye, which came on the heels of a bad loss to Cincy.  I have the Pack winning this division, so give me the home team. GREEN BAY WINS
  • Seattle @ Indianapolis: This is going to be a fun one.  The Colts are very good late in games, and the Hawks are coming off a huge comeback win over Houston.  It will be a close one.  If this were in Seattle, I’d probably choose different. INDY WINS
  • Baltimore @ Miami: Both teams are coming off losses.  The Ravens haven’t gotten what they expected in the run game, and the Dolphins were just outmatched by a high-powered Saints team.  MIAMI WINS
  • New Orleans @ Chicago:  Drew Brees is playing better than everyone not named Peyton Manning.  The Bears defense was picked apart last week.  NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Kansas City @ Tennessee: Two teams that are a combined 7-1 coming into this one.  The Chiefs are clicking on all cylinders, and the Titans are hurting at QB.  I have to give the edge to the undefeated squad. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Jacksonville @ St. Louis:  This could be as good a chance for the Jags to finally win a game as there has been all year.  Except it won’t be.  ST LOUIS WINS

4/4:25PM Sunday Games:

  • Carolina @ Arizona:  The Panthers are coming off their bye week, and are looking to get their 2nd win of the year.  The Cardinals look to continue to put last year behind them, and get a big home win.  I think the Panthers takes this one by one score. CAROLINA WINS
  • Denver @ Dallas: The Cowboys have flaws.  The Broncos have Peyton Manning.  This might finally be a close game for Denver, but I see them staying perfect. DENVER WINS

Sunday Night Football:

  • Houston @ San Francisco: The Texans blew a 20-3 lead in week 4, while the 49ers made easy work of the Rams.  When on, both teams have stout defenses and very good running games.  I’m going with the “upset” and taking the road team. HOUSTON WINS

11:35PM Sunday Game (Rescheduled because of the ALDS)

  • San Diego @ Oakland:  The Chargers are coming off a big win over Dallas, while the Raiders are sputtering. But San Diego has been up good one game, unable to finish the next.  If the Raiders run game can get back on track, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won. That being said, give me the Chargers in this one. SAN DIEGO WINS

Monday Night Football:

  • New York Jets @ Atlanta: The Falcons need this one.  Both are coming off loses in week 5, but I’m giving the Georgia Dome the edge.  ATLANTA WINS

That’s it.  See you all after Monday Night!