NFL: Week 14 Picks

Carolina remained undefeated in week 13, but it took a huge second half to do so.  Meanwhile in the AFC, there’s a three way tie for the best record at 10-2 between Denver, Cincinnati and New England, who managed to lose their second straight game and fall out of a bye if the season ended today.

Lucky for them, and us, we still have plenty of football left.  I moved to 109-82 in my picks this season with a 10-6 mark in week 13.

Thursday Night Football

  • Vikings @ Cardinals: Minnesota couldn’t make a move in week 13, losing badly to a streaking Seahawks team. They allowed the Packers to get back into first place.  As for the Cards, they are sitting comfortably in the two spot in the NFC and still have a three game in lead in their division.  Both teams have been solid in all phases all season, but Arizona holds a huge edge in the passing game. Until Teddy Bridgewater can consistently put up big numbers in the air, this team is going to be one dimensional on offense.  And against an above the fourth best rush defense in the league, Minnesota is going to need more from their second year QB.  So as much as I like this Vikings team, I like the home team even more.  ARIZONA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Bills @ Eagles: Both team are coming off nice wins against playoff hopefuls, while keeping their own playoffs alive.  Philly took down the Patriots, giving them their second loss in a row, a rarity in the Tom Brady era.  Buffalo evened up their record taking down the Texans, who remain tied atop the AFC South.  This is another game where both teams have been inconsistent all season, hence the .500 and below records.  I have a lot more faith in the Bills defense however, so give me the road team to move above .500, while the Eagles drop out of first in the East. BUFFALO WINS
  • 49ers @ Browns: Two of the worst teams in the league square off this weekend in Cleveland.  The Browns currently hold the worst record, with San Fran sitting two games better than them.  The Niners hurt their “chances” at the top draft pick when they took down the Bears in OT.  Neither team has had the season they would’ve hoped for and while both teams have a lot of on and off the field questions, I think the Niners find a way to pull out another game this week.  SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Lions @ Rams: St. Louis started off the season with a lot of promise, but have totally collapsed in the second half.  The opposite can be said for Detroit, who took two months to get a win, and have looked a lot more like the team we expected here the past six weeks or so.  Both enter with 4-8 records, but the Lions are the hotter team, and the more talented team.   DETROIT WINS
  • Saints @ Buccaneers: Early on this season, both of these NFC South teams looked like they’d be in-contention for the number 1 pick.  And while New Orleans still has an outside shot, both teams have shown glimpses of hope.  Tampa Bay knew there would be struggles with a rookie QB, but the number 1 overall pick in Jameis Winston has his team at .500 and in a spot for a possible wild card.  Drew Brees and company had gotten to .500 after a very rough start, and despite a two-touchdown lead on the undefeated Panthers in week 13, the Saints are in the middle of a four-game slide.  So wins this division match-up? While the Bucs running game is one of the best in the league, and the Saints defense hasn’t been anything to write home about, I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the road team to pick up their fifth win this weekend.  NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Titans @ Jets: The Jets needed OT in week 13, but they kept their playoff hopes alive against their stadium mates.  As for Tennessee, they remain in line for another prime draft pick with a 3-9 record. While the Titans have the ability to score in bunches, they don’t have the ability to stop good teams most days. And the Jets are a good team that can beat you in several ways.  That’s why I like the Jets to better their chances at a wildcard berth this week. NEW YORK WINS
  • Steelers @ Bengals: Pittsburgh has been the most resilient team in the league this season, sitting in a playoff spot in the competitive AFC despite stretches with Ben Roethlisberger and their top flight running back Le’Veon Bell.  But they still enter action three games behind the Bengals for the AFC North, and a Cincinnati win this week gives them that crown.  This should be a fun game, and despite two good defenses, could be a high scoring one.  But whether it is a shoot out or not, I think the Bengals get the job done and move closer to a much needed first round bye. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Colts @ Jaguars: Neither team has a winning record, but one team has a shot at a division crown.  Indianapolis, despite a bad start to the season and losing their Pro-Bowl caliber QB remain in a fight for the AFC South crown.  Jacksonville is just playing out the season, preparing for another high draft pick.  Sure the Jags have shown promise, but they’ve also shown how young they are.  Indy and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck have something to prove and fight for, so give me the Colts to move above .500 here in week 14. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Chargers @ Chiefs: San Diego has been a disappointment this season, on both sides of the football, while their counterparts have rebounded from a rough start and find themselves in the playoff hunt. Kansas City has won six straight, and are the second hottest team in the league.  Their defense has been great all season, and now their offense has closed the gap.  They’re playoff vets, and not a team to be taken lightly.  The Chargers can definitely play spoiler with Philip Rivers under center, I just don’t think they will.  KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Redskins @ Bears: Washington had a chance to take hold of the NFC Least in week 13, instead they lost a strange game to Dallas.  Chicago lost another game late, this time to San Francisco.  If the NFC East wasn’t so bad, this would just be a game between two bad teams looking for better draft position.  Instead, it has playoff implications too.  And while Washington has been a lot better in the second half of the season, I like what the Bears have been able to do in the ground game of late.  So give me the Bears to make things more difficult and hard to define in the NFC East. CHICAGO WINS
  • Falcons @ Panthers: After starting off the season on fire, the Falcons have come crashing back to earth in a big way.  Not only are they on a five-game losing streak they are no behind two teams in the NFC South.  And a road tilt against the league’s last undefeated team isn’t a great confidence boaster.  Cam Newton is playing like an MVP and the defense is playing like champions.  Will Carolina stay undefeated through the regular season? Who knows. But unless Atlanta stops turning the ball over and gets the offense of weeks 1-4 back, the Panthers should stay undefeated another week.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Ravens:  Which bird will fly highest in week 14?  That’s easy.  The Seahawks are on fire, while the Ravens wings were clipped weeks ago.  The NFC should be scared with how great Seattle’s offense has looked in recent weeks.  And despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t been horrible defensively, there’s no way they can compete with what the reigning NFC champs are bringing on either side of the ball, not this year.  SEATTLE WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Raiders @ Broncos: Another week, another win for Denver, who enters week 14 as the two seed in the AFC.  As for the Raiders, who sit two games out of the playoffs, they are just looking to get to .500.  This AFC West match-up should still be a good one, but I don’t think it will end in any other way but with another Broncos win.  Denver’s defense is too good, and the Raiders offense too inconsistent. DENVER WINS
  • Cowboys @ Packers: 4-8 versus 8-4 and yet somehow, both teams have a shot at their division.  It’s the sad state of the NFC East that a Dallas team on QB number 3 can say that, but after Matt Cassel picked up his first win in a Cowboys uniform Monday against the Redskins, they are just a game out.  Meanwhile, the Packers wild finish in Detroit on Aaron Rodgers game ending Hail Mary, coupled with the Vikings loss has them back atop the NFC North.  Both teams want this game, but Green Bay needs it.  The Packers can’t miss the playoffs after tehir 6-0 start, while Dallas should really focus on getting better in the draft and looking ahead to getting Tony Romo back for next season.  Dallas and their fans probably don’t see it that way, but the knowledge they can win this division and be this bad, should tell them a healthy, revamped team in 2016 could go far.  Besides, Rodgers and company have been bad at home lately, something they’re not used to.  I can’t see another letdown for them. GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Texans: It’s a huge AFC battle on Sunday Night with playoff implications on both sides.  As previously mentioned, both teams took unexpected losses in week 13.  After starting 10-0, the Pats are now in danger of losing a bye, as both the Bengals and Broncos enter the week with identical 10-2 records.  Houston is .500 and could have a shot at having the AFC South all to themselves if the Colts fall this week. I though the Pats would come out angry last week, and instead were embarrassed by the below .500 Eagles.  Give me an angry Tom Brady to get back on track and hurt Houston’s playoff chances in week 14.   NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Dolphins: One team still has a shot at the division, while the other has a lot of work to do just to get into the playoff discussion and stay out of the cellar in their own division.  Both teams enter action with 5-7 records. Of New York’s seven losses, six of them have come by one score (18 combined points), meaning if they’d converted even half of those, they’d be 8-4 and be well on their way to the NFC East crown. Instead, they’re in a three way tie for 1st.  As for Miami, they’re up, yet mostly down season has them looking up at everyone else in the AFC East.  I keep doing this every week, but for a team led by a coach/QB tandem that have won championships, in years where they were written off about this time, I’m going with New York one last time to save their season. NEW YORK WINS

 

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NFL: Week 14 Picks

Pretty amazing that it’s week 14 and nothing is really close to being decided as the playoff approach.

I went 9-7 in my week 13 picks, bringing my season total up to 118-73.

Thursday Night Football

  • Cowboys @ Bears: Dallas is coming off a thanksgiving day loss to the Eagles which saw them drop back in the NFC East. Chicago was also blown out on Thursday by their divisional foes, the Lions. So who bounces back? Give me the emote consistent team in Dallas to get the road win. Romo and company aren’t historically good in December, but I think they shake off those demons and ensure their first winning record since 2009, also their last postseason appearance. DALLAS WINS

Sunday 1pm Games

  • Steelers @ Bengals: Questions surrounding the health of Ben Roethlisberger throws  wrench into this game (reports are he has broken his wrist).  But with the struggles of the Bengals (who still managed to win their last two and get a lead in the tightest division in football), this game won’t be easy. I still like Cincinnati at home, especially if Andy Dalton can avoid the redone turnovers. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Rams @ Redskins: The St Louis Rams have impressed me this season more than their 5-7 record might dictate.  But look at some of their wins coming against the 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks.  And now they’re coming off a 52-0 dismantling of the Raiders (who of course stink but still). As for the Redskins, they continue to sleep walk to another high draft pick and questions around who will be their quarterback next year rage on.  Give me the Rams and their impressive defense to move to 6-7 in fairly easy fashion. ST LOUIS WINS
  • Giants @ Titans: The best thing for New York to do would be to lose out, because changes are coming whether they win again this season or not.  A 3-13 record isn’t want you want, but it’s better for draft purposes than say a 5-11 or 6-10. But the Titans are terrible and not in a Jags only had 1 win kind of way. So give me Eli Manning pride to snap their 7-game slide. NEW YORK WINS
  • Panthers @ Saints: A win for Carolina means they snap a 6-game losing streak and remain in the NFC South division chase. If New Orleans can get the job done, they will keep pressure on the Falcons and step closer to respectability record wise. You’d think Carolina would wake up eventually, but it’s hard to win on the road against the Saints. NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Jets @ Vikings: It took 13 weeks, but the Jets finally realized they are allowed to run the football, putting up over 200 yards on the ground against a good Miami Dolphins team.  Unfortunately for New York, they started Geno Smith in favor of Mike Vick, to see what they could get from him, didn’t utilize him enough and still lost their 10th game.  As for Minnesota, the Vikings 5-7 record isn’t bad considering their lack of offense without Adrian Peterson and a rookie under center. I truly think Tedddy Bridgewater can get himself going against the Jets non-existent secondary at home. MINNESOTA WINS
  • Ravens @ Dolphins: A win for Baltimore means they gain on someone in the AFC North by virtue of the Steelers/Bengals match-up (unless there’s a tie). The Ravens have been very up-and-down this season, losing a tough one a week ago late against San Diego.  New England’s loss a to Green Bay helped the Dolphins pick up a game in the AFC East thanks to their win over New York.  So this is a big game for both teams who look to secure at least wild card spots.  I like Baltimore on the road because they know what it takes down the stretch, while Miami has shown flashes of breaking down. BALTIMORE WINS
  • Colts @ Browns: Brian Hoyer is still the starting quarterback for Cleveland despite many calling for Johnny Manziel. Andrew Luck is still the guy in Indy, and better than both of those guys combined. Sure Cleveland’s defense will be up to the task, but the Colts team is on a different level right now then the Browns are. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Buccaneers @ Lions: The Lions need this one.  The NFC playoff picture is so jumbled with 4 teams in line for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs are bad and could play spoiler, but I don’t see it happening. They don’t do anything particularly well. Mike Evans is their lone star on offense and the Lions defense will be all over that. DETROIT WINS
  • Texans @ Jaguars: The Jaguars showed something, particularity on defense in their comeback win over the Giants a week ago.  But I like Houston in this one.  JJ Watt is a monster, and there wasn’t anyone like that on New York for Jacksonville to contend with. HOUSTON WINS

Sunday 4/4:25 Games

  • Bills @ Broncos: Another game with playoff implications for both teams in the AFC.  Buffalo is still in contention for a playoff spot, jumbled with a number of 7-win teams. Denver could become the first team to 10 wins in the far superior AFC.  The Broncos haven’t been as dominant this season as they were last season, yet I think they are a more complete team, especially with the emergence of CJ Anderson in the backfield. So I don’t think this will be a blowout, but I also don’t think the Broncos will have too much trouble getting to double digit victories. DENVER WINS
  • Chiefs @ Cardinals: Kansas City, like so many other teams, happens to play in a division with a dominant team, and yet is having a playoff worthy season.  Arizona has dipped of late following the loss of Carson Palmer, and needs a win to keep a hold on their once runaway lead in the NFC West.  So which western team makes a statement?  I think the Cardinals find a way to snap their mini skid at home in a low scoring affair.  Look for Bruce Arians comments post game last week in a loss to Atlanta to spark pride (he said they weren’t ready to play a week ago). ARIZONA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Eagles: The Legion of Boom is back and Philly is in position to defend their NFC East crown. The Eagles offense is doing a good job under Mark Sanchez, and the special teams continues to come up big.  But the reigning champs are rounding into shape at the right time, so give me Russell Wilson and company to get a big road win against a team they could play in the postseason, should they get there. SEATTLE WINS
  • 49ers @ Raiders: San Francisco is putting up a good fight for a playoff spot in a tough NFC West.  Oakland is Oakland.  The niners can’t afford a let down, and despite the questions of where their head coach will be next year, I don’t think a let down happens here in week 14. SAN FRANCISCO WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Chargers: San Diego has been a team of runs this season, and they’re latest hot streak has them back in contention not only fr a wild card spot, but they could still win the AFC West.  New England lost a week ago to a very good Packers squad, so it’ll be interesting to see how they rebound from their worst game in nearly more than a month.  I think the inconsistency of the Chargers versus Tom Brady is a huge advantage for the Patriots.  Big road games have never fazed the 3-time Superbowl champ, and I think he rallies his team to a 10th win on Sunday night. NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Falcons @ Packers: As of right now, this is somehow a match-up of division leaders, but it’s not an evenly matched affair.  Atlanta sits atop the NFC South by default, while Green Bay has taken over the NFC North and look like the best team in football. They’re stellar at home, with Aaron Rodgers having not thrown an interception at Lambeau in two years. GREEN BAY WINS