NFL: Week 14 Picks

Carolina remained undefeated in week 13, but it took a huge second half to do so.  Meanwhile in the AFC, there’s a three way tie for the best record at 10-2 between Denver, Cincinnati and New England, who managed to lose their second straight game and fall out of a bye if the season ended today.

Lucky for them, and us, we still have plenty of football left.  I moved to 109-82 in my picks this season with a 10-6 mark in week 13.

Thursday Night Football

  • Vikings @ Cardinals: Minnesota couldn’t make a move in week 13, losing badly to a streaking Seahawks team. They allowed the Packers to get back into first place.  As for the Cards, they are sitting comfortably in the two spot in the NFC and still have a three game in lead in their division.  Both teams have been solid in all phases all season, but Arizona holds a huge edge in the passing game. Until Teddy Bridgewater can consistently put up big numbers in the air, this team is going to be one dimensional on offense.  And against an above the fourth best rush defense in the league, Minnesota is going to need more from their second year QB.  So as much as I like this Vikings team, I like the home team even more.  ARIZONA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Bills @ Eagles: Both team are coming off nice wins against playoff hopefuls, while keeping their own playoffs alive.  Philly took down the Patriots, giving them their second loss in a row, a rarity in the Tom Brady era.  Buffalo evened up their record taking down the Texans, who remain tied atop the AFC South.  This is another game where both teams have been inconsistent all season, hence the .500 and below records.  I have a lot more faith in the Bills defense however, so give me the road team to move above .500, while the Eagles drop out of first in the East. BUFFALO WINS
  • 49ers @ Browns: Two of the worst teams in the league square off this weekend in Cleveland.  The Browns currently hold the worst record, with San Fran sitting two games better than them.  The Niners hurt their “chances” at the top draft pick when they took down the Bears in OT.  Neither team has had the season they would’ve hoped for and while both teams have a lot of on and off the field questions, I think the Niners find a way to pull out another game this week.  SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Lions @ Rams: St. Louis started off the season with a lot of promise, but have totally collapsed in the second half.  The opposite can be said for Detroit, who took two months to get a win, and have looked a lot more like the team we expected here the past six weeks or so.  Both enter with 4-8 records, but the Lions are the hotter team, and the more talented team.   DETROIT WINS
  • Saints @ Buccaneers: Early on this season, both of these NFC South teams looked like they’d be in-contention for the number 1 pick.  And while New Orleans still has an outside shot, both teams have shown glimpses of hope.  Tampa Bay knew there would be struggles with a rookie QB, but the number 1 overall pick in Jameis Winston has his team at .500 and in a spot for a possible wild card.  Drew Brees and company had gotten to .500 after a very rough start, and despite a two-touchdown lead on the undefeated Panthers in week 13, the Saints are in the middle of a four-game slide.  So wins this division match-up? While the Bucs running game is one of the best in the league, and the Saints defense hasn’t been anything to write home about, I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the road team to pick up their fifth win this weekend.  NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Titans @ Jets: The Jets needed OT in week 13, but they kept their playoff hopes alive against their stadium mates.  As for Tennessee, they remain in line for another prime draft pick with a 3-9 record. While the Titans have the ability to score in bunches, they don’t have the ability to stop good teams most days. And the Jets are a good team that can beat you in several ways.  That’s why I like the Jets to better their chances at a wildcard berth this week. NEW YORK WINS
  • Steelers @ Bengals: Pittsburgh has been the most resilient team in the league this season, sitting in a playoff spot in the competitive AFC despite stretches with Ben Roethlisberger and their top flight running back Le’Veon Bell.  But they still enter action three games behind the Bengals for the AFC North, and a Cincinnati win this week gives them that crown.  This should be a fun game, and despite two good defenses, could be a high scoring one.  But whether it is a shoot out or not, I think the Bengals get the job done and move closer to a much needed first round bye. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Colts @ Jaguars: Neither team has a winning record, but one team has a shot at a division crown.  Indianapolis, despite a bad start to the season and losing their Pro-Bowl caliber QB remain in a fight for the AFC South crown.  Jacksonville is just playing out the season, preparing for another high draft pick.  Sure the Jags have shown promise, but they’ve also shown how young they are.  Indy and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck have something to prove and fight for, so give me the Colts to move above .500 here in week 14. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Chargers @ Chiefs: San Diego has been a disappointment this season, on both sides of the football, while their counterparts have rebounded from a rough start and find themselves in the playoff hunt. Kansas City has won six straight, and are the second hottest team in the league.  Their defense has been great all season, and now their offense has closed the gap.  They’re playoff vets, and not a team to be taken lightly.  The Chargers can definitely play spoiler with Philip Rivers under center, I just don’t think they will.  KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Redskins @ Bears: Washington had a chance to take hold of the NFC Least in week 13, instead they lost a strange game to Dallas.  Chicago lost another game late, this time to San Francisco.  If the NFC East wasn’t so bad, this would just be a game between two bad teams looking for better draft position.  Instead, it has playoff implications too.  And while Washington has been a lot better in the second half of the season, I like what the Bears have been able to do in the ground game of late.  So give me the Bears to make things more difficult and hard to define in the NFC East. CHICAGO WINS
  • Falcons @ Panthers: After starting off the season on fire, the Falcons have come crashing back to earth in a big way.  Not only are they on a five-game losing streak they are no behind two teams in the NFC South.  And a road tilt against the league’s last undefeated team isn’t a great confidence boaster.  Cam Newton is playing like an MVP and the defense is playing like champions.  Will Carolina stay undefeated through the regular season? Who knows. But unless Atlanta stops turning the ball over and gets the offense of weeks 1-4 back, the Panthers should stay undefeated another week.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Ravens:  Which bird will fly highest in week 14?  That’s easy.  The Seahawks are on fire, while the Ravens wings were clipped weeks ago.  The NFC should be scared with how great Seattle’s offense has looked in recent weeks.  And despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t been horrible defensively, there’s no way they can compete with what the reigning NFC champs are bringing on either side of the ball, not this year.  SEATTLE WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Raiders @ Broncos: Another week, another win for Denver, who enters week 14 as the two seed in the AFC.  As for the Raiders, who sit two games out of the playoffs, they are just looking to get to .500.  This AFC West match-up should still be a good one, but I don’t think it will end in any other way but with another Broncos win.  Denver’s defense is too good, and the Raiders offense too inconsistent. DENVER WINS
  • Cowboys @ Packers: 4-8 versus 8-4 and yet somehow, both teams have a shot at their division.  It’s the sad state of the NFC East that a Dallas team on QB number 3 can say that, but after Matt Cassel picked up his first win in a Cowboys uniform Monday against the Redskins, they are just a game out.  Meanwhile, the Packers wild finish in Detroit on Aaron Rodgers game ending Hail Mary, coupled with the Vikings loss has them back atop the NFC North.  Both teams want this game, but Green Bay needs it.  The Packers can’t miss the playoffs after tehir 6-0 start, while Dallas should really focus on getting better in the draft and looking ahead to getting Tony Romo back for next season.  Dallas and their fans probably don’t see it that way, but the knowledge they can win this division and be this bad, should tell them a healthy, revamped team in 2016 could go far.  Besides, Rodgers and company have been bad at home lately, something they’re not used to.  I can’t see another letdown for them. GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Texans: It’s a huge AFC battle on Sunday Night with playoff implications on both sides.  As previously mentioned, both teams took unexpected losses in week 13.  After starting 10-0, the Pats are now in danger of losing a bye, as both the Bengals and Broncos enter the week with identical 10-2 records.  Houston is .500 and could have a shot at having the AFC South all to themselves if the Colts fall this week. I though the Pats would come out angry last week, and instead were embarrassed by the below .500 Eagles.  Give me an angry Tom Brady to get back on track and hurt Houston’s playoff chances in week 14.   NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Dolphins: One team still has a shot at the division, while the other has a lot of work to do just to get into the playoff discussion and stay out of the cellar in their own division.  Both teams enter action with 5-7 records. Of New York’s seven losses, six of them have come by one score (18 combined points), meaning if they’d converted even half of those, they’d be 8-4 and be well on their way to the NFC East crown. Instead, they’re in a three way tie for 1st.  As for Miami, they’re up, yet mostly down season has them looking up at everyone else in the AFC East.  I keep doing this every week, but for a team led by a coach/QB tandem that have won championships, in years where they were written off about this time, I’m going with New York one last time to save their season. NEW YORK WINS

 

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NFL: Week 13 Picks

No more bye weeks as we hit the stretch run.  Week 13 starts with the best Thursday of the season, Thanksgiving and it’s 3 games.  I can’t remember when all these games had more playoff implications.

Week 12 was another good one for me, as I went 11-4 to improve to 109-66 on the year.  So here are my next crop of picks, let me know if you agree or not!

Thanksgiving Day Games

  • Bears @ Lions: Chicago has won two games in a row while Detroit has dropped two games straight to lose control of the NFC North.  That being said, I haven’t been impressed with the Bears in those two wins, and I think at home on Thanksgiving, the Lions find a way to break out offensively. DETROIT WINS
  • Eagles @ Cowboys: It’s a battle for control of the NFC East. It’s the first of two match-ups this season, meaning the loser will still have a shot at the crown.  Dallas hasn’t been great at home, while winning all 5 on the road.  Dallas holds the edge at quarterback with Romo over Sanchez, and running back with Murray over McCoy, so give me the Boys to improve to 4-3 at home. DALLAS WINS
  • Seahawks @ 49ers: Neither team that appeared in the NFC Championship game lead their division, that’s Arizona, but both still have a shot at the crown and a playoff spot.  The reigning champs haven’t looked like it for most of the season, and yet they can still make the postseason.  The same can be said for San Fran, though they’re a bit more consistent at this point after a 1-2 start to the year.  It’s going to be close, and with another match-up in two weeks in 12 man territory, I think the Niners take advantage, giving Turkey day games a home sweep. SAN FRANCISCO WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Redskins @ Colts: RGII has been benched in Washington.  Not surprising, but it doesn’t give them a better chance to win this game in my opinion.  Andrew Luck is better than every QB on the Redskins roster.  Add to this being a home game with playoff seeding on the line, give me the Colts in an easy one. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Titans @ Texans: For Houston, they’ve already turned around a horrible 2013-14 season into a season with at least one more win.  Finishing at 8-8 would be great for this team, especially after losing Ryan Mallet this past weekend. Tennessee just continues to sleepwalk to the end of the season and I don’t see them getting their 3rd win this week on the road. HOUSTON WINS
  • Browns @ Bills: Buffalo is coming off a strange week with a blizzard that forced a home game to be moved to Detroit on Monday.  They made due with an easy win over the Jets, but now they hope to play in Buffalo this week against a team that isn’t easy to handle.  Brian Hoyer, despite a bad game against Atlanta, has his team in the playoff hunt and looking to keep pace in the AFC.  Both teams have a shot at the playoffs and defenses capable of shutting down offenses.  I like the run game better for the Bills, but Cleveland finds ways to win, and so I think they eek one out again this week. CLEVELAND WINS
  • Chargers @ Ravens: This should be a good game between two teams in the playoff conversation.  San Deigo is on two game win streak, though they haven’t been very impressive victories for a team that started out the season 5-1.  Baltimore enters action on it’s own 2 game win streak and they continue to show their depth, particularly at running back.  It’s become a theme, but I’m going with the AFC North team in this game as well. BALTIMORE WINS
  • Giants @ Jaguars: I know I picked the Giants again. But they’ve been so much better on offense lately that despite the Jags stellar redzone defense, I think New York’s defense can figure out a way to stop Jacksonville’s lone big threat in Denard Robinson to snap their 6-game losing streak. NEW YORK WINS
  • Bengals @ Buccaneers: Tampa has two wins and isn’t out of the playoff picture.  Cincinnati continues to hold a slim lead in the North, and it’s a lead I think they continue to hold when they pick up the road win this week. Unless Mike Evans learns to throw to himself between now and Sunday, give me Andy Dalton to AJ Green for the win. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Raiders @ Rams: It’s not often that a 4-7 can be called impressive, but that’s how I feel about the Rams.  Their defense is top 10 in the league, their wins are against some of the league’s best, and they keep games close.  As for the Raiders, they’re not going 0-16 so that’s their highlight.  Rams at home. ST LOUIS WINS
  • Saints @ Steelers: We all keep waiting for New Orleans to look like better than they have all year lead by Drew Brees, but it’s time accept that they’re a bad football team in a bad division.  That while the Steelers are playing in the most competitive division in the league this season.  This could be a shootout, but the run game for Pittsburgh will lift the black and yellow to a victory. PITTSBURGH WINS
  • Panthers @ Vikings: Carolina is on a 5-game losing streak, sit at just 3-7-1 and yet they still have a very real shot at winning the NFC South.  Makes you shake your head.  That division is so bad that at 4-7, the Vikings would be tied for the lead with the Falcons and Saints! Teddy Bridgewater has done a decent job in his rookie season managing games, though the pass game has been ugly for the Vikings.  But their defense keeps them in games, and I think they get another home win this week. MINNESOTA WINS

Sunday 4/4:25PM Games

  • Cardinals @ Falcons: ARIZONA WINS
  • Patriots @ Packers: GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Broncos @ Chiefs: DENVER WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Dolphins @ Jets: MIAMI WINS