NFL: Week 16 Picks

Two more weeks to go, and six of the 12 playoff spots have now been claimed.  Carolina escaped week 15 with their perfect record in tact, the reigning Super Bowl Champs clinched a bye, and the Seahawks continued to show why they are the two-time defending NFC Champs.

Last week I finished at 9-7 to bring my season picks total to 126-91.

Thursday Night Football

  • Chargers @ Raiders: The Chargers played what could’ve been their final game in San Diego last week, and played their best game of the season.  Oakland put up a good fight against the Packers in week 15, thanks to a big game from Amari Cooper, but now the best they can hope for this season is an 8-8 record.  I like what San Diego did last week, finally getting the running backs involved, so give me another Chargers win on Christmas Eve. SAN DIEGO WINS

Saturday Night Football

  • Redskins @ Eagles: It’s that time of year.  No more College Football, so we Football on Saturday Night! You get excited remembering that, than I remember we have to watch Washington and Philadelphia battle it out for the NFC Least. The Skins sit alone atop the division, but need to win one of their two final games to hold on to the crown.  Washington is the better team, whatever that means in this division, and should get the victory to lock up the division this week.  WASHINGTON WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Patriots @ Jets: New England already has the division and first round bye locked up.  They can still lose the number 1 seed, so they still have a lot to play for in week 16.  New York currently sits just outside of a wild card spot, despite starting the season with a 4-1 record and being on a four-game win streak.  These two know each other well, and played a close one in week 7.  I think this will be another close affair, but I like the Patriots to take the season series and possibly wrap up the number 1 spot in the AFC. NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Texans @ Titans:  Houston sits in the drivers seat in the AFC South after a week 15 win over the Colts.  Both teams will start backups in week 16, a big story of the South this season. The Texans are unsurprisingly being carried by their defense, and I expect that to be the case again this weekend.  I like Houston to win this game and the division, while Tennessee looks to secure the number 1 pick. HOUSTON WINS
  • Browns @ Chiefs: Cleveland would get the number two pick in the draft if things stay as is through the final two weeks of the season.  Kansas City has higher hopes, as they have not only gotten themselves into wild card position, but are just a game back of the Broncos for the AFC West. The Chiefs are far-and-beyond the better team, and I expect them to make it nine wins-in-row. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Colts @ Dolphins: Before the season I like the Dolphins to challenge for a wild card spot, and the Colts to make the Superbowl.  Now as the regular season winds down, Miami is in line for a top 10 pick, while Indianapolis could finish under .500 and miss the playoffs entirely. I could see this being a low scoring game based on the inconsistencies of both offenses, so I am going to take the home team to leave a less than bitter taste in their mouths this off-season.  MIAMI WINS
  • Jaguars @ Saints: Jacksonville hasn’t been consistent in any phase of the game this season, but neither have the Saints.  The Jaguars have shown they can score in bunches, and New Orleans has shown they can’t stop anyone.  With the possibility of no Drew Brees this week, I like the road team to pick up their sixth win of the season. JACKSONVILLE WINS
  • 49ers @ Lions: Neither team has had the season they thought they would.  I’m more surprised by what Detroit has done returning most of their players from a year ago.  San Francisco made too many changes in the off-season coupled with poor play from Colin Kaepernick to compete in the NFC West.  That being said, Detroit has played a lot of better of late, and that is why I’m going with the Lions in this match-up. DETROIT WINS
  • Cowboys @ Bills: Two disappointing seasons, but for different reasons. Injuries have Dallas set to finish the season with a great draft pick in preparation for the return of Tony Romo next season. The running game hasn’t been what the Bills wanted it to be this season, and their defense really disappointed. That being said, I like Tyrod Taylor than the Cowboys options at quarterback, so I’m picking the home team in this one. BUFFALO WINS
  • Bears @ Buccaneers: Two teams out of the playoff picture square off in Florida this weekend.  And neither team can finish above .500, the Bucs should feel a lot better than the Bears when this season comes to a close.  Jameis Winston showed flashes in his rookie season, and this team stayed in the playoff conversation until last week.  Chicago has now put up back-to-back disappointing seasons, and haven’t been over .500 in three years.  A year after getting the number 1 pick, Tampa has at that mark, and I think they give themselves a shot in week 17. TAMPA BAY WINS
  • Panthers @ Falcons: One more win, or one more Cardinals loss will give the undefeated Panthers the number 1 seed in the NFC.  They nearly lost to New York in week 15, playing poor defense and turning the ball over late, things they don’t do.  But they held on, and Cam Newton continued his MVP caliber play. Atlanta finally snapped They will play for an undefeated season in week 17. CAROLINA WINS
  • Giants @ Vikings: New York needs to win out and a lot of help if they want to make the playoffs. Minnesota controls its own destiny, hlding a two game lead for the final NFC wildcard spot.  Win one of the next two, and the Vikings are in.  However, Eli Manning has been so good throwing the ball of late, that they hold the advantage there over Minnesota.  But without his most reliable weapon in Odell Beckham Jr, who knows.  With that being said, you always want to clinch earlier, and with a chance to do so at home, I like the Vikings to run all over the Giants defense. MINNESOTA WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Rams @ Seahawks: Russell Wilson is having the best season of his career, which is impressive for a guy who’s taken his team to the past two Super Bowls. The Rams have a shot at .500 for the first time since 2006, but I don’t think they get there.  The offense isn’t high powered enough to keep up with a red hot Seahawks team.  SEATTLE WINS
  • Packers @ Cardinals: Arizona has the division wrapped up, and a win this week would all give them a first round bye.  Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot, but haven’t locked up the division and still have a shot at a bye week.  The Cardinals haven’t lost in a while, and have their run game going.  And while Carson Palmer is fine after injuring his finger in week 15, I’m going to take a leap and pick the road team this week.  GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Steelers @ Ravens: The Ravens are just looking to stay out of the cellar in the the AFC North, while the Steelers are trying to grab a wild card berth. While division games are usually more competitive than non-division ones, there’s no way this version of the Baltimore Ravens keep up offensively with the Steelers, who have scored 30+ in each of their last six games.  A win gives Pittsburgh 10 and keeps them in a wild card spot heading into the final week of the season, a game against the lowly Browns. PITTSBURGH WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Bengals @ Broncos:  Without question the game of the week, maybe the regular season game of the year.  The winner has a clearer path to a bye week in the tough AFC. The loser might not even get a bye week with the Patriots already clinching one.  Cincinnati is without Andy Dalton, but are probably feeling better about themselves than teh Broncos, who are just 3-4 since their perfect start. The Bengals could use the extra week to get Andy Dalton healthy.  As for Denver, their early season success was predicated on their defense, which was no match for a hot Steelers team in a big game a week ago.  And with the Chiefs now just a game out, this game means a whole lot to them as well. So who takes the Monday Night affair?  Give me the Broncos to rebound and get to AJ McCarron. DENVER WINS
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NFL Playoffs: AFC & NFC Championship Picks

And then there were four.  After the divisional round, the top 2 seeds in the NFC, the Seahawks and Packers will do battle for the right to play in the Superbowl.  On the AFC side, the Patriots will take on the Colts after a clear passing of the torch.

How did we get here?

The Packers were the first to secure a final four spot when Aaron Rodgers played through an injury to lift his team over the the Dallas Cowboys.  Both teams went over 100 yards on the ground, but Eddie Lacy ran for 22 more than the NFL league leader in DeMarco Murray.  Tony Romo was out-passed by nearly 130 yards and a TD.  The turning point was a 1st and goal catch by Dez Bryant that was overturned with 4 minutes to go in the game on 4th down.  They were down 5, and who’s to say the Packers don’t stop the TD on the goal line?  But the Cowboys weren’t given a chance when it was ruled Bryant didn’t complete the process of the catch to the ground.

Then we saw the Carolina Panthers run end when they went into 12th man territory. The big play was was when Kam Chancellor returned an interception 90 yards for a touchdown to seal the victory in the 4th in a game that saw Seattle never trail. The Seahawks became the first reigning Superbowl Champ to win a playoff game since the Pats did so in 2006.

NFC Championship

  • Packers @ Seahawks: This is the game I thought we would see before the season.  And honestly, I think this match-up could be better than whatever turns into the final Superbowl.  Why?  Because you get the reigning champs playing the possible MVP.  You get the best home QB in the league playing on the road in the best home field advantage in football.  It’s a rematch of the season opener, a Seattle blowout at home and the reason why Green Bay didn’t get home-field as both teams finished with identical 12-4 records.  That will not happen again this time around. Aaron Rodgers calf injury is a concern, as is Eddie Lacy’s, but I still think this is the team that can go into Seattle and upset the reigning champs. Rodgers showed he could put this team on his back time and again.  This is going to be fun, and probably the better game of the day, but this is my reach pick, and I’m sticking with the my preseason pick of Packers over Seahawks for the right to play in the superbowl. GREEN BAY WINS

AFC Championship

  • Colts @ Patriots: New England is one win away from the Superbowl… again.  Remember when everyone thought they were done early in the season? They’ll play host to the Colts in a rematch of the 2006 AFC Championship game, except for one very big difference.  His counterpart at QB isn’t Peyton Manning, but the heir apparent in Indy, Andrew Luck. Indianapolis’ defense stepped up on the road, limiting the passing game of the Broncos.  The Patriots need to look to exploit their run defense however, which was the best part of Denver’s offense a week ago. Joe Flacco had his way with the Pats secondary as well, so look for Luck to have more success with deep passes in addition to his stellar short game.  Tom Brady has been here many times before, which is why I would say he has more to lose than the Colts in this game.  The Pats have been eliminated in this round the past two seasons and haven’t won on in a decade.  Indy continues to trend upward under Luck, so while they of course want to advance, but this was a great season no matter what happens Sunday.  Don’t forget that the Pats have blew out the Colts the past 3 meetings, including a 22-point victory in November. I want to pick Indianapolis, but I think it’s time for New England to make a reappearance in the big one.  It’ll be close.  NEW ENGLAND WINS