NFL PLAYOFFS: Championship Weekend

Divisional weekend sort of followed the same pattern of Wildcard weekend… except all the home teams won as opposed to all the road teams.  We had one blowout win (by Carolina).  We had strange finishes, thanks to yet another hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers to force overtime.  Poor clock management by Kansas City late that left them no time to possibly get the ball back after making it a one score game in New England.  All four games ended within a score, though some didn’t feel so close.

And now we take a look at the final four standing.  We have the top two seeds from both conferences left standing. I had three of these four teams making it to this point, with the exception of the Patriots.

NFC Championship Game

  • Arizona (2) @ Carolina (1): Larry Fitzgerald’s renaissance continued in the divisional round, exploding for 176 yards, including a huge play to set up the winning touchdown, which he would score, on the third play of overtime against Green Bay. While the Cardinals got here in the air, the Panthers used their legs to run over and past the two-time defending NFC Champs to give themselves a shot at that title this year.  Both teams defenses can shut you down at any given time, so I don’t see this being a shoot out.  It’s going to come down to time of possession, and since neither team turns the ball over much, I’m going to give the edge to the home team.  CAROLINA WINS

AFC Championship Game

  • New England (2) @ Denver (1): Manning vs Brady take 17. The Patriots QB owns the series 11-5, but it’s even in the postseason at 2-2.  And with this possibly being the final match-up, it’s fitting that it’s for the right to play in the Superbowl.  The Patriots held off the hottest team in the league a week ago, thanks to big performances from Brady and Gronkowski.  Denver had a tougher time holding off the injury riddled Steelers, but their defense held, and the run game got going late.  I’m not sure Peyton Manning out plays Tom Brady this weekend, but I like the Broncos running game better, and I have loved Denver’s defense all season.   DENVER WINS

 

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NFL PLAYOFFS: Divisional Round

What a first round! We got strange finishes, dominant performances, and some history in the process: it was the first time all four road teams won. Now we get to see the top 8 do battle. Can the road teams carry over the good feelings from Wildcard Weekend? Or can the top 4 seeds get to the Championship games?

I picked three of the four games from last week correctly, as I took the Chiefs, Seahawks and Packers all to win on the road.  I nearly got the last one when the Bengals almost came back from 15 down, but late mistakes doomed Cincy again and they went home after the first round yet again.

Saturday Games

  • Chiefs (5) @ Patriots (2): The win streak has hit 11 for the Chiefs, and they had the easiest time advancing to the second round.  The Kansas City defense made easy work of Houston, and the game felt over to me as soon as Knile Davis started the game with an 108-yard kick-off return.  They’re clicking on all cylinders and are the hottest team in the league. New England is coming off a week of rest, and for once got an offensive weapon back as opposed to losing one to injury.  Danny Amendola is back for the Pats this week and it’s sure to be a welcome sight for Tom Brady.  That being said, New England has had a lesser second half after starting 10-0, mostly due to injury.  And against this Chiefs defense, even Brady will need help, and I don’t know if he’ll get enough.  I’m going with the upset for the Chiefs and saying the Pats don’t make their 5th straight Conference championship. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Packers (5) @ Cardinals (2): After backing into the playoffs, Green Bay found themselves again on the road against Washington last week.  The run game got back to respectability, and Aaron Rodgers found the passing game in the second half.  Feeling good about themselves, the Packers head to Arizona to play the number 2 seed.  Before the season I picked the the Packers to win the Superbowl, and after their hot start the season, I felt good about it.  But the Packers are truly the fourth best team in the NFC right now, and while they are more than capable of winning on the road, I don’t see it happening.  The Cardinals are 19-3 in the past two seasons with Carson Palmer under center and had a week to recharge themselves after a blowout loss in week 17.  Larry Fitzgerald has had a renaissance season, and their run game exploded towards the end of the season with David Johnson.  I’m going with the consistent Cardinals at home to make it to their first NFC Championship game since 2008. ARIZONA WINS

Sunday Games

  • Seahawks (6) @ Panthers (1): Seattle is lucky to be here after the Vikings missed a game winning chip shot late last week.  The Seahawks defense was great a week ago, and while the Vikings did a great job stymieing their offense, Seattle was able to get the passing game going in the fourth.  They face another tough defense in the 15-1 Panthers, though they did start to slip a bit towards the end of the season.  That’s not surprising as they were so good all season. Marshawn Lynch should be back for the Seahawks, making this another game prime for a ground and pound battle.  Possessions will be hard to come by, but there will be more action in the air than a week ago.  As much as I like how good Seattle has been in the second half, and despite the success they’ve had in the playoffs in the past few years, I think we’re looking at a 1-2 match-up in the NFC. Give me the Panthers in a one score game. CAROLINA WINS
  • Steelers (6) @ Broncos (1): Pittsburgh survived their first round match-up, but as was the story of their season, they suffered heavy losses.  Ben Roethlisberger suffered an AC Sprain and torn ligaments during last weeks Wildcard win.  With his status up in the air, the Steelers are already without another huge weapon in Antonio Brown, who suffered a concussion.  The Broncos had a week to rest up for this, and a week to get Peyton Manning back in game shape.  Manning hasn’t played a full game since November 8th, but it must be a good feeling to know you have a guy in Brock Osweiler to go to at the first sign of trouble.  Denver has been superior on defense all year, the running game got going late and they have the home crowd on their side. DENVER WINS

NFL PLAYOFFS: Wildcard Weekend

It was an interesting week 17 that saw teams like the New York Jets lose their spot in the playoffs, the Patriots lose their number 1 seed and Peyton Manning’s return to claim that spot in the AFC.  And it wasn’t any less dramatic over in the NFC, where the Vikings held off a late charge from the Packers on the road to claim the North, while the Seahawks made a huge statement on the road against Arizona.

And in case you missed it, the top 20 in the NFL Draft looks like this:

  1. Tennessee (picked 2nd last season)
  2. Cleveland
  3. San Diego
  4. Dallas (won the NFC East a year ago)
  5. Jacksonville
  6. Baltimore (1st losing season since 2007)
  7. San Francisco
  8. Miami
  9. Tampa
  10. NY Giants
  11. Chicago (finished 4th in the NFC North for a second straight season)
  12. New Orleans
  13. Philadelphia
  14. Oakland (most wins since 2011)
  15. St. Louis
  16. Detroit (was a wild card team a season ago)
  17. Atlanta
  18. Indianapolis (finished 11-5 prior 3 seasons)
  19. Buffalo
  20. NY Jets (only 10 win team not in the playoffs)

But now the regular season is over.  And the fun is just getting started.  12 teams are left vying for the Lombardi Trophy and it all starts Saturday as Wildcard weekend kicks off with the AFC.

NFC Byes: Carolina (1) and Arizona (2)

AFC Byes: Denver (1) and New England (2)

AFC Wildcard game 1 – Saturday

  • Chiefs (5) @ Texans (4): The hottest team in the league heading into the playoffs are the Kansas City Chiefs.  10-straight wins after starting 1-5, and they allowed just 20+ points once from week four on.  Houston won the South thanks to a 6-2 second half and a very good defense.  So we’ve got two top 10 defenses kicking off the playoffs.  Who comes out on top? I like the Chiefs to keep the winning going.  KANSAS CITY WINS

AFC Wildcard game 2 – Saturday

  • Steelers (6) @ Bengals (3): Pittsburgh has overcome so many injuries this season to make the playoffs, and they enter without another piece after DeAngelo Williams went down in a must win week 17.  Cincinnati had a shot all season at a bye week, but the loss of Andy Dalton late in the season, along with a week 16 loss to Denver, has them playing a first round game again. AJ McCaron has looked pretty good in place of Dalton, and while the Steelers are riding a lucky streak, I think it ends this week, whether Dalton is back or not.  It’s the year the Bengals make it out of the first round. CINCINNATI WINS

NFC Wildcard game 1 – Sunday

  • Seahawks (6) @ Vikings (3) : It’s going to be an extremely cold one in Minnesota. This was always going to be a ground-and-pound type of game, but with kick-off possibly at 0 degrees, it rings even truer.  Seattle and Minnesota enter as the third and fourth best rushing teams in the league respectfully, so this is going to come down to who can at least make the other defense think pass.  Russell Wilson is on fire throwing the football, and with his team knowing how to win in the playoffs, I like them to control time of possession and the air game. SEATTLE WINS

NFC Wildcard game 2 – Sunday

  • Packers (5) @ Redskins (4): The Packers have backed into the playoffs, while the Redskins are flying high.  Kirk Cousins did work at home once named the starter, so this is going to be a tough game for Green Bay. The Packers defense needs to carry the team, and I think they will.  While Washington did a decent job keeping opponents off the board during the season, they gave up the fifth most yards per game.  It’s the type of defense Aaron Rodgers needs to get their offense going. GREEN BAY WINS

 

NFL: Week 17 Picks

The final week of the regular season is upon us, the Panthers are undefeated no longer and there is still a lot to decide for the postseason.  There are two spots left up for grabs, both in the AFC, but seeding isn’t even close to set yet.  We still don’t know who wins the NFC North and we don’t know who wins the AFC South.  Three different teams can finish with the number 1 seed in the AFC, while two teams have a shot in the NFC.  So sit back and enjoy what is essentially the first week of the playoffs!

I went just 7-9 in my picks last week, making my season total heading into the final slate of games 134-106.

Sunday 1PM games

  • Jets @ Bills: It’s simple for the Jets. Win and you’re in. New York has won five straight and are back to doing what got them out to a quick start to the season.  Buffalo has been up and down all season, and the money they put into the defense didn’t pay off. There are other ways for the Jets to get into the playoffs if they lose, but with a shot to get in against their former coach, I’ll take Gang Green on the road. NEW YORK WINS
  • Patriots @ Dolphins:  New England’s loss to New York in week 16 means they still have something to play for this week, and that’s the number 1 seed in the AFC.  They need to win and they get it.  If they lose, and the Broncos win, Denver gets it.  Miami is playing for pride and to play spoiler.  But they won’t.  The Patriots injuries are concerning, but Tom Brady in a most win situation and a chance to have the AFC go through Foxborough? I like those odds.  NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Saints @ Falcons: This wasn’t the season I thought we’d see from New Orleans.  I thought they’d bounce back from a down 2014-15 season, but an 1-4 start was too much to come back from, though they tried, getting themselves to .500 at 4-4, before the wheels fell off.  The defense was never there for the Saints.  It’s been an even stranger year for the Falcons, who got off to a fast 6-1 start, then went on to lose six straight.  Now they’ve won two straight, including ending the Panthers undefeated season.  They were eliminated from playoff contention thanks to the Vikings win on Sunday night, but they can salvage the season and finish at 9-7, which i think they do in front of their fans. ATLANTA WINS
  • Ravens @ Bengals: A win secures a first round bye for the Bengals, which is always big, but for a team that has been bounced in the first round four straight years, would be huge. Baltimore was plagued with injuries all season, and are just looking to end the season on a high note.  Cincy is coming off a tough OT loss to Denver, but AJ McCaron showed he can succeed while Andy Dalton gets better.  At home, with that defense, I am taking the Bengals to give themselves a shot at the bye. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Steelers @ Browns: Pittsburgh can still make it to the playoffs, but they need to win and they need help.  Good thing for them is they are playing the Browns, who can still finish with the worst record in the league.  And continuing issues at QB leaves Cleveland with another off-season of questions ahead.  Give me the road team to end on a high note, even if they don’t make the playoffs. PITTSBURGH WINS
  • Jaguars @ Texans: Houston doesn’t have to win to take the AFC South crown, but you always want to take the division, not back into it.  They get a tough match-up in Jacksonville, who has shown the ability to score in the second half.  But the Texans defense at home with a chance to punch their own ticket will be too much for the Jags to handle. HOUSTON WINS
  • Titans @ Colts: Indianapolis needs to win this game and get a whole lot of help if they’re to win the South.  But as I have already picked the Texans, I don’t think they get there.  However, they will win this final game of the year.  Tennessee benefits more from losing, plain and simple. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Redskins @ Cowboys: The Redskins already have the division and can’t finish anywhere but fourth in the NFC.  But capping off the season on a four-game win streak and a 9-7 record will further validate their being in the playoffs. Dallas will want to finish on a high note, but they’ve put so many key people on IR that even if the Skins take it easy and rest most of their players,  I can’t see the Boys winning their season finale. WASHINGTON WINS
  • Eagles @ Giants: The loser finishes the season in third place in the NFC East, despite both leading the division at different parts of the season. New York had a clear path to the division, had they played better in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter this season.  Good teams finish, and they weren’t able to consistently enough. 7 of the Giants 9 losses were by one score. As for the Eagles, they never got their running game going, and Sam Bradford was a turnover machine.  The Eagles destroyed their NFC East rivals at home in their first meeting of the season, so I’ll take the Giants to finish with some pride and return the favor to end both their seasons. NEW YORK WINS
  • Lions @ Bears: The loser gets the NFC North cellar all to themselves, a far fall for the 11-5 Lions of a season ago.  Both teams have played better here in the second half of the season, just good enough to fall closer to the middle of the pack record wise in the league. So who avoids the basement? I like the Lions on the road to finish strong and take a three-game win streak into the off-season. DETROIT WINS

Sunday 425 PM Games

  • Buccaneers @ Panthers: Tampa Bay showed flashes in 2015 under 1st year QB Jameis Winston, staying the playoff race most of the season.  But finishing up the season against the no longer undefeated Panthers is a tough way to go out.  Carolina still has something to play for as they haven’t locked up the number 1 seed, and with the Cards playing at the same time, they can’t go into this one knowing if they can rest players or not.  Either way, I like the Panthers to finish up at 15-1 and force the NFC to come through Carolina en route to Super Bowl 50. CAROLINA WINS
  • Raiders @ Chiefs: Oakland could linger on what could’ve been this season after a decent 4-3 start, but they should be excited for the future, after winning just 3 games a year ago, they stayed in the playoff hunt for most of the season with a young team.  As for Kansas City, they’re the hottest team in the AFC, and are getting the best of Alex Smith.  It’s amazing how the Chiefs got off to such a slow start BEFORE losing Jamaal Charles.  Oakland will make this tough, but I think the Chiefs make it 10 straight heading into the playoffs. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Chargers @ Broncos: San Diego is going to finish with one of the worst records in the league, while Denver can finish anywhere but 4th in the AFC. A win and a Patriots loss would give them the 1 seed.  I think they get the win, but as I think New England wins,  I see the Broncos finishing as the two seedDENVER WINS
  • Seahawks @ Cardinals: Two of the NFC’s best take flight in week 17.  Both teams are playoff bound once again.  Seattle has been on fire in the second half, looking more like the two-time defending NFC Champs they are as each week passes. That was before they looked bad at home against the Rams last week.  As for Arizona, why are we not giving Carson Palmer more praise for what he’s done with the Cardinals? The team is 29-8 with him under center, 19-2 the past two seasons.  They still have a shot at the number 1 seed if the Panthers lose again. This division match-up will have a playoff feel, but I think the home team gets the W. ARIZONA WINS
  • Rams @ 49ers: San Francisco’s season was shaped in the off-season when they moved too many pieces. The defense played better as the season when on, and they got a couple more wins after changing QBs, but they’ve got a lot of work to do if they want to get back to their winning ways.  As for the Rams, they showed their age, defeating some of the league’s best, including a season sweep of the Rams and handing the Cardinals their first loss. This is also a chance for the Rams to finish 8-8 for the first time since 2006, and I think they finish the job. ST LOUIS WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Vikings @ Packers:  The battle of the NFC North title caps off the regular season slate.  Minnesota has been carried by their defense and rushing attack all season, while Green Bay has been extremely up and down since starting the season 6-0.  The Packers rushing attack has been severely underwhelming, and Aaron Rodgers offensive line hasn’t been doing him any favors. The Vikings will be able to hold time of possession, but as the calendar turns to January and the playoffs, I think we will get the best version of Aaron Rodgers, and the Pack will clinch the division on the seasons final day, as they did two years ago against the Bears. GREEN BAY WINS

NFL: Week 16 Picks

Two more weeks to go, and six of the 12 playoff spots have now been claimed.  Carolina escaped week 15 with their perfect record in tact, the reigning Super Bowl Champs clinched a bye, and the Seahawks continued to show why they are the two-time defending NFC Champs.

Last week I finished at 9-7 to bring my season picks total to 126-91.

Thursday Night Football

  • Chargers @ Raiders: The Chargers played what could’ve been their final game in San Diego last week, and played their best game of the season.  Oakland put up a good fight against the Packers in week 15, thanks to a big game from Amari Cooper, but now the best they can hope for this season is an 8-8 record.  I like what San Diego did last week, finally getting the running backs involved, so give me another Chargers win on Christmas Eve. SAN DIEGO WINS

Saturday Night Football

  • Redskins @ Eagles: It’s that time of year.  No more College Football, so we Football on Saturday Night! You get excited remembering that, than I remember we have to watch Washington and Philadelphia battle it out for the NFC Least. The Skins sit alone atop the division, but need to win one of their two final games to hold on to the crown.  Washington is the better team, whatever that means in this division, and should get the victory to lock up the division this week.  WASHINGTON WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Patriots @ Jets: New England already has the division and first round bye locked up.  They can still lose the number 1 seed, so they still have a lot to play for in week 16.  New York currently sits just outside of a wild card spot, despite starting the season with a 4-1 record and being on a four-game win streak.  These two know each other well, and played a close one in week 7.  I think this will be another close affair, but I like the Patriots to take the season series and possibly wrap up the number 1 spot in the AFC. NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Texans @ Titans:  Houston sits in the drivers seat in the AFC South after a week 15 win over the Colts.  Both teams will start backups in week 16, a big story of the South this season. The Texans are unsurprisingly being carried by their defense, and I expect that to be the case again this weekend.  I like Houston to win this game and the division, while Tennessee looks to secure the number 1 pick. HOUSTON WINS
  • Browns @ Chiefs: Cleveland would get the number two pick in the draft if things stay as is through the final two weeks of the season.  Kansas City has higher hopes, as they have not only gotten themselves into wild card position, but are just a game back of the Broncos for the AFC West. The Chiefs are far-and-beyond the better team, and I expect them to make it nine wins-in-row. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Colts @ Dolphins: Before the season I like the Dolphins to challenge for a wild card spot, and the Colts to make the Superbowl.  Now as the regular season winds down, Miami is in line for a top 10 pick, while Indianapolis could finish under .500 and miss the playoffs entirely. I could see this being a low scoring game based on the inconsistencies of both offenses, so I am going to take the home team to leave a less than bitter taste in their mouths this off-season.  MIAMI WINS
  • Jaguars @ Saints: Jacksonville hasn’t been consistent in any phase of the game this season, but neither have the Saints.  The Jaguars have shown they can score in bunches, and New Orleans has shown they can’t stop anyone.  With the possibility of no Drew Brees this week, I like the road team to pick up their sixth win of the season. JACKSONVILLE WINS
  • 49ers @ Lions: Neither team has had the season they thought they would.  I’m more surprised by what Detroit has done returning most of their players from a year ago.  San Francisco made too many changes in the off-season coupled with poor play from Colin Kaepernick to compete in the NFC West.  That being said, Detroit has played a lot of better of late, and that is why I’m going with the Lions in this match-up. DETROIT WINS
  • Cowboys @ Bills: Two disappointing seasons, but for different reasons. Injuries have Dallas set to finish the season with a great draft pick in preparation for the return of Tony Romo next season. The running game hasn’t been what the Bills wanted it to be this season, and their defense really disappointed. That being said, I like Tyrod Taylor than the Cowboys options at quarterback, so I’m picking the home team in this one. BUFFALO WINS
  • Bears @ Buccaneers: Two teams out of the playoff picture square off in Florida this weekend.  And neither team can finish above .500, the Bucs should feel a lot better than the Bears when this season comes to a close.  Jameis Winston showed flashes in his rookie season, and this team stayed in the playoff conversation until last week.  Chicago has now put up back-to-back disappointing seasons, and haven’t been over .500 in three years.  A year after getting the number 1 pick, Tampa has at that mark, and I think they give themselves a shot in week 17. TAMPA BAY WINS
  • Panthers @ Falcons: One more win, or one more Cardinals loss will give the undefeated Panthers the number 1 seed in the NFC.  They nearly lost to New York in week 15, playing poor defense and turning the ball over late, things they don’t do.  But they held on, and Cam Newton continued his MVP caliber play. Atlanta finally snapped They will play for an undefeated season in week 17. CAROLINA WINS
  • Giants @ Vikings: New York needs to win out and a lot of help if they want to make the playoffs. Minnesota controls its own destiny, hlding a two game lead for the final NFC wildcard spot.  Win one of the next two, and the Vikings are in.  However, Eli Manning has been so good throwing the ball of late, that they hold the advantage there over Minnesota.  But without his most reliable weapon in Odell Beckham Jr, who knows.  With that being said, you always want to clinch earlier, and with a chance to do so at home, I like the Vikings to run all over the Giants defense. MINNESOTA WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Rams @ Seahawks: Russell Wilson is having the best season of his career, which is impressive for a guy who’s taken his team to the past two Super Bowls. The Rams have a shot at .500 for the first time since 2006, but I don’t think they get there.  The offense isn’t high powered enough to keep up with a red hot Seahawks team.  SEATTLE WINS
  • Packers @ Cardinals: Arizona has the division wrapped up, and a win this week would all give them a first round bye.  Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot, but haven’t locked up the division and still have a shot at a bye week.  The Cardinals haven’t lost in a while, and have their run game going.  And while Carson Palmer is fine after injuring his finger in week 15, I’m going to take a leap and pick the road team this week.  GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Steelers @ Ravens: The Ravens are just looking to stay out of the cellar in the the AFC North, while the Steelers are trying to grab a wild card berth. While division games are usually more competitive than non-division ones, there’s no way this version of the Baltimore Ravens keep up offensively with the Steelers, who have scored 30+ in each of their last six games.  A win gives Pittsburgh 10 and keeps them in a wild card spot heading into the final week of the season, a game against the lowly Browns. PITTSBURGH WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Bengals @ Broncos:  Without question the game of the week, maybe the regular season game of the year.  The winner has a clearer path to a bye week in the tough AFC. The loser might not even get a bye week with the Patriots already clinching one.  Cincinnati is without Andy Dalton, but are probably feeling better about themselves than teh Broncos, who are just 3-4 since their perfect start. The Bengals could use the extra week to get Andy Dalton healthy.  As for Denver, their early season success was predicated on their defense, which was no match for a hot Steelers team in a big game a week ago.  And with the Chiefs now just a game out, this game means a whole lot to them as well. So who takes the Monday Night affair?  Give me the Broncos to rebound and get to AJ McCarron. DENVER WINS

NFL: Week 14 Picks

Carolina remained undefeated in week 13, but it took a huge second half to do so.  Meanwhile in the AFC, there’s a three way tie for the best record at 10-2 between Denver, Cincinnati and New England, who managed to lose their second straight game and fall out of a bye if the season ended today.

Lucky for them, and us, we still have plenty of football left.  I moved to 109-82 in my picks this season with a 10-6 mark in week 13.

Thursday Night Football

  • Vikings @ Cardinals: Minnesota couldn’t make a move in week 13, losing badly to a streaking Seahawks team. They allowed the Packers to get back into first place.  As for the Cards, they are sitting comfortably in the two spot in the NFC and still have a three game in lead in their division.  Both teams have been solid in all phases all season, but Arizona holds a huge edge in the passing game. Until Teddy Bridgewater can consistently put up big numbers in the air, this team is going to be one dimensional on offense.  And against an above the fourth best rush defense in the league, Minnesota is going to need more from their second year QB.  So as much as I like this Vikings team, I like the home team even more.  ARIZONA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Bills @ Eagles: Both team are coming off nice wins against playoff hopefuls, while keeping their own playoffs alive.  Philly took down the Patriots, giving them their second loss in a row, a rarity in the Tom Brady era.  Buffalo evened up their record taking down the Texans, who remain tied atop the AFC South.  This is another game where both teams have been inconsistent all season, hence the .500 and below records.  I have a lot more faith in the Bills defense however, so give me the road team to move above .500, while the Eagles drop out of first in the East. BUFFALO WINS
  • 49ers @ Browns: Two of the worst teams in the league square off this weekend in Cleveland.  The Browns currently hold the worst record, with San Fran sitting two games better than them.  The Niners hurt their “chances” at the top draft pick when they took down the Bears in OT.  Neither team has had the season they would’ve hoped for and while both teams have a lot of on and off the field questions, I think the Niners find a way to pull out another game this week.  SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Lions @ Rams: St. Louis started off the season with a lot of promise, but have totally collapsed in the second half.  The opposite can be said for Detroit, who took two months to get a win, and have looked a lot more like the team we expected here the past six weeks or so.  Both enter with 4-8 records, but the Lions are the hotter team, and the more talented team.   DETROIT WINS
  • Saints @ Buccaneers: Early on this season, both of these NFC South teams looked like they’d be in-contention for the number 1 pick.  And while New Orleans still has an outside shot, both teams have shown glimpses of hope.  Tampa Bay knew there would be struggles with a rookie QB, but the number 1 overall pick in Jameis Winston has his team at .500 and in a spot for a possible wild card.  Drew Brees and company had gotten to .500 after a very rough start, and despite a two-touchdown lead on the undefeated Panthers in week 13, the Saints are in the middle of a four-game slide.  So wins this division match-up? While the Bucs running game is one of the best in the league, and the Saints defense hasn’t been anything to write home about, I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the road team to pick up their fifth win this weekend.  NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Titans @ Jets: The Jets needed OT in week 13, but they kept their playoff hopes alive against their stadium mates.  As for Tennessee, they remain in line for another prime draft pick with a 3-9 record. While the Titans have the ability to score in bunches, they don’t have the ability to stop good teams most days. And the Jets are a good team that can beat you in several ways.  That’s why I like the Jets to better their chances at a wildcard berth this week. NEW YORK WINS
  • Steelers @ Bengals: Pittsburgh has been the most resilient team in the league this season, sitting in a playoff spot in the competitive AFC despite stretches with Ben Roethlisberger and their top flight running back Le’Veon Bell.  But they still enter action three games behind the Bengals for the AFC North, and a Cincinnati win this week gives them that crown.  This should be a fun game, and despite two good defenses, could be a high scoring one.  But whether it is a shoot out or not, I think the Bengals get the job done and move closer to a much needed first round bye. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Colts @ Jaguars: Neither team has a winning record, but one team has a shot at a division crown.  Indianapolis, despite a bad start to the season and losing their Pro-Bowl caliber QB remain in a fight for the AFC South crown.  Jacksonville is just playing out the season, preparing for another high draft pick.  Sure the Jags have shown promise, but they’ve also shown how young they are.  Indy and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck have something to prove and fight for, so give me the Colts to move above .500 here in week 14. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Chargers @ Chiefs: San Diego has been a disappointment this season, on both sides of the football, while their counterparts have rebounded from a rough start and find themselves in the playoff hunt. Kansas City has won six straight, and are the second hottest team in the league.  Their defense has been great all season, and now their offense has closed the gap.  They’re playoff vets, and not a team to be taken lightly.  The Chargers can definitely play spoiler with Philip Rivers under center, I just don’t think they will.  KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Redskins @ Bears: Washington had a chance to take hold of the NFC Least in week 13, instead they lost a strange game to Dallas.  Chicago lost another game late, this time to San Francisco.  If the NFC East wasn’t so bad, this would just be a game between two bad teams looking for better draft position.  Instead, it has playoff implications too.  And while Washington has been a lot better in the second half of the season, I like what the Bears have been able to do in the ground game of late.  So give me the Bears to make things more difficult and hard to define in the NFC East. CHICAGO WINS
  • Falcons @ Panthers: After starting off the season on fire, the Falcons have come crashing back to earth in a big way.  Not only are they on a five-game losing streak they are no behind two teams in the NFC South.  And a road tilt against the league’s last undefeated team isn’t a great confidence boaster.  Cam Newton is playing like an MVP and the defense is playing like champions.  Will Carolina stay undefeated through the regular season? Who knows. But unless Atlanta stops turning the ball over and gets the offense of weeks 1-4 back, the Panthers should stay undefeated another week.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Ravens:  Which bird will fly highest in week 14?  That’s easy.  The Seahawks are on fire, while the Ravens wings were clipped weeks ago.  The NFC should be scared with how great Seattle’s offense has looked in recent weeks.  And despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t been horrible defensively, there’s no way they can compete with what the reigning NFC champs are bringing on either side of the ball, not this year.  SEATTLE WINS

Sunday 4/425PM Games

  • Raiders @ Broncos: Another week, another win for Denver, who enters week 14 as the two seed in the AFC.  As for the Raiders, who sit two games out of the playoffs, they are just looking to get to .500.  This AFC West match-up should still be a good one, but I don’t think it will end in any other way but with another Broncos win.  Denver’s defense is too good, and the Raiders offense too inconsistent. DENVER WINS
  • Cowboys @ Packers: 4-8 versus 8-4 and yet somehow, both teams have a shot at their division.  It’s the sad state of the NFC East that a Dallas team on QB number 3 can say that, but after Matt Cassel picked up his first win in a Cowboys uniform Monday against the Redskins, they are just a game out.  Meanwhile, the Packers wild finish in Detroit on Aaron Rodgers game ending Hail Mary, coupled with the Vikings loss has them back atop the NFC North.  Both teams want this game, but Green Bay needs it.  The Packers can’t miss the playoffs after tehir 6-0 start, while Dallas should really focus on getting better in the draft and looking ahead to getting Tony Romo back for next season.  Dallas and their fans probably don’t see it that way, but the knowledge they can win this division and be this bad, should tell them a healthy, revamped team in 2016 could go far.  Besides, Rodgers and company have been bad at home lately, something they’re not used to.  I can’t see another letdown for them. GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Texans: It’s a huge AFC battle on Sunday Night with playoff implications on both sides.  As previously mentioned, both teams took unexpected losses in week 13.  After starting 10-0, the Pats are now in danger of losing a bye, as both the Bengals and Broncos enter the week with identical 10-2 records.  Houston is .500 and could have a shot at having the AFC South all to themselves if the Colts fall this week. I though the Pats would come out angry last week, and instead were embarrassed by the below .500 Eagles.  Give me an angry Tom Brady to get back on track and hurt Houston’s playoff chances in week 14.   NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Dolphins: One team still has a shot at the division, while the other has a lot of work to do just to get into the playoff discussion and stay out of the cellar in their own division.  Both teams enter action with 5-7 records. Of New York’s seven losses, six of them have come by one score (18 combined points), meaning if they’d converted even half of those, they’d be 8-4 and be well on their way to the NFC East crown. Instead, they’re in a three way tie for 1st.  As for Miami, they’re up, yet mostly down season has them looking up at everyone else in the AFC East.  I keep doing this every week, but for a team led by a coach/QB tandem that have won championships, in years where they were written off about this time, I’m going with New York one last time to save their season. NEW YORK WINS

 

NFL: Week 13 Picks

I had a very good week 12 picking games, going 12-4 including 2-1 on Thanksgiving and taking the Broncos to end the Patriots undefeated season.  Let’s continue it and improve on my 99-76 season record.

Thursday Night Football

  • Packers @ Lions: The Lions are the hotter team heading into this match-up, the second straight Thursday game for both Detroit and Green Bay.  The offense finally exploded in Detroit’s Thanksgiving day win, catching up to the defense they’ve been playing during their three-game win streak.  Green Bay had another poor showing at home against Chicago, after losing their first home game of the season to the Lions a few weeks earlier. Eddie Lacy showed up in week 12, and they’ll need that again whether Rodgers is healthy or not this week.  And I think they’ll get a good game on the ground and get back on track in week 13.   GREEN BAY WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Jets @ Giants: It’s the battle for New York. and the winner stays relevant in their respective conferences playoff race.  The Giants have an easier path to the playfofs, as tehy still have a shot at the division.  The Jets are fighting with more teams in the AFC for a wildcard spot, with the Patriots a full four games ahead of them with five to play.  Both teams had high hopes for the season, with the Jets getting off to a fast start, while the Giants needed to catch-up after an 0-2 start.  They’ve had issues closing but as bad as they’ve been defensively, I still like Big Blue to move to .500 and stay on pace in the NFC East. NEW YORK GIANTS WIN
  • Cardinals @ Rams: A promising start to the season for St. Louis has turned into another possible losing season.  Now they play host to the second best team in the NFC.  The Rams degense has the abiloty to keep them in the game, but the offense is just too inconsistent.  Arizona has figured out how to limit mistakes and not play down to their opponents.  Larry Fitzgerald is currently questionable, and Arizona will be without Chris Johnson in the run game, but I can’t see this ending in any other way than with the Cards picking up their 10th win of the season.  ARIZONA WINS
  • Falcons @ Buccaneers:  Atlanta started off the season 6-1 and now they’ve lost four straight.  The offense wasn’t going to keep up the crazy prodction of the first half, but they’ve dropped off too much and now they might miss the playoffs.  Tamapa has been playing a lot ebtter on both sides of hte ball here in the second half, so this won’t be easy for the Falcons.  That being said, I still like the birds to keep themselves in the playoff conversation, and not let the Bucs enter said conversation. ATLANTA WINS
  • Seahawks @ Vikings: This might be my favorite game of the weekend.  It’s huge for both teams.  If the season ended today, both teams would be in the playoffs in the NFC, and would play each other in the Divisional round.  Seattle has been inconsistent all season, but are starting to look like their old selves.  Both teams rely heavily on the run game and their defenses, so expect this game to have a low number of possessions.  It’s also going to come down to the wire, and that’s when someone will have to throw the ball.  And I give the edge to Russell Wilson  SEATTLE WINS 
  • Texans @ Bills:  Buffalo hasn’t been able to stay consistent, while Houston took a while to get off the ground.  The Bills need to continue to run the ball effectively in order to have any shot at winning this game.  But I don’t think they’ll get enough going in the run game with the way the Texans defense has been playing of late. I like Houston to win their fifth straight. HOUSTON WINS
  • Ravens @ Dolphins:  Baltimore needed a special teams miracle in week 12 to beat the Cleveland Browns.  Matt Schaub got a lucky win despite another pick six.  Miami  continues to struggle, has seen multiple coaching changes and sit comfortably in the cellar of the AFC East.  So who gets the win? As bad as the Dolphins have looked at times, I feel the changes and the home setting play in their favor, at least for one week. MIAMI WINS
  • Bengals @ Browns:  One of the best teams in the league versus one of the worst.  The Bengals can’t take that for granted though and I don’t think they will.  Cleveland’s offense had a good day in week 12, but we know who to stop.  Cover Travis Benjamin and hope for the best.  Cleveland has shown they can make plays on defense, but the Bengals hold the edge weapon wise on both sides of the ball, and that’s why they get their 10th win of the season. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Jaguars @ Titans: Jacksonville won a close game a few weeks ago on Thursday Night.  Tennessee’s problem hasn’t been on defense. They’ve had trouble getting offensive consistency, let alone back to their explosion of week one.  Jacksonville has been pretty consistent all season in their inability to win the close game. They seem to score big when they allow big, score few, when they allow few.  That being said, I still think the Titans find a way to win their 3rd game of the season. TENNESSEE WINS
  • 49ers @ Bears:  Two of the bigger disappointments face off in Chicago this week.  San Francisco has suffered all season from their massive amount of changes in the off-season.  The Bears picked up where they left off last season, a team that couldn’t stop anyone.  At least the Bears have figured out how to win a respectable amount of games, including a game against the Packers.  Despite how bad they actually are, I think the Bears will move to .500 this week. CHICAGO WINS

Sunday 4/4:25PM Games

  • Broncos @ Chargers: Brock Osweiler and company are flying high after knocking off the undefeated Patriots.  Denver boasts the best defense in the league, and found a way to win eight games with an ineffective Peyton Manning.  And now they have a young, hungry QB that made all the throws to take down Tom Brady last week.  San Diego has been bad all season, despite big numbers from Philip Rivers.  They’re two games back in the West and sinking fast.  These two teams know each other very, very well, but it won’t make much of a difference for the Chargers.  Denver is just too good right now. DENVER WINS
  • Chiefs @ Raiders: Another all AFC West battle in Oakland gives us two teams in the race for a playoff spot.  Oakland has been up and down of late, while Kansas City has been all up.  The Raiders are a young team, so their inconsistency isn’t surprising; not to mention they only won three games a season ago and now look to move to .500.  As for the Chiefs, what they’ve done since losing Jamaal Charles is nothing short of amazing.  The defense has shaped up, and Alex Smith continues to manage the game mistake free.  I’ve liked what Oakland has done this season, and it sets them up for next season, but give me KC on the road. KANSAS CITY WINS
  • Panthers @ Saints: The league’s only undefeated team takes the show on the road to their division rival.  Carolina has gotten better every week, and now they look to move to 12-0.  New Orleans is the best case for the Panthers to do so against, as the Saints have shown they can’t stop anyone in 2015.  And with an inconsistent offense, this should be an easy one for the Panthers.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Eagles @ Patriots: Philadelphia had a shot at the NFC East for a second straight season, but a couple awful performances in a row have put them in a tough position.  Now they have to figure things out on the road against an angry Patriots team who gained more injuries and their first loss in week 12.  Despite New England’s offensive injuries, they’re by far the better team, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t get back on track in a big way in week 13. NEW ENGLAND WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Colts @ Steelers: Indianapolis is finally on a win streak but have company atop the AFC South.  Pittsburgh finds itself in the thick of the AFC Wildcard hunt despite an alarming number of injuries.  Pittsburgh defense has been pretty good all season, even if they have allowed 30-plus two of the last three weeks.  The Colts have had issues on defense, in addition to their offensive issues.  And because of that, despite better play of late, I’m going with the home team in this game. PITTSBURGH WINS 

Monday Night Football

  • Cowboys @ Redskins: Last season, the Skins were in the cellar, and the Boys were in a fight for the division.  A year later, it’s the reverse.  Washington is on fire, and Dallas is without their quarterback again.   Washington’s defense has been up and down, but Kirk Cousins has taken the starting job and ran with it, helping cover up those problems.  Add that the skins have been a lot better at home this season, and I’ll take the home team to stay atop the East for another week. WASHINGTON WINS