NFL: Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Picks

Most Impressive Teams of Week 5

  1. Arizona Cardinals (4-1): What a bounce back from their first loss.  It’s hard to win by 25 when your QBs only attempt 18 passes.  Carson Palmer was and efficient 11-14 for three scores.  The run game was huge, racking up nearly 200 yards and three scores of their own.  Add a defense that registered six takeaways and you have your reason why they’re up two games in the NFC West.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals (5-0): Down 17 in the fourth to the Legion of Boom is an extremely tall task for any team, home or not.  But Andy Dalton led the team on three scoring drives, running in a TD, throwing another and giving his kicker Mike Nugent time to kick a field-goal to send the game to OT.  The defense started out slowly, especially against the run game, but they pitched a shutout from midway through the 3rd through overtime.
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3):It took a month, but DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews remembered how to run, a good step in the right direction.  That being said, Sam Bradford is lucky the Saints aren’t very good, overcoming two red zone interceptions in the first quarter.   A number of field goals helped break the game open, as well as break a three-game home losing skid for the Eagles. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt when your defense forces five turnovers.

Most Disappointing Teams of Week 5

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4): Another bad week for Kansas City, who not only lost their fourth straight, they lost their biggest offensive weapon in Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL.  Up 17-3 at the half, they couldn’t do anything in the second half, getting shut out by a Bears team that has been pretty darn awful early.  The Chiefs issue wasn’t turnovers, but an inability to stay on the field offensively, a problem they had even before Charles went down.
  2. New Orleans Saints (1-4):This team continues to struggle on both sides of the ball. They’re a bottom half offensive team, while allowing the third most points-per-game in the league.  Turnovers haven’t been a problem, but a lack of a running game has been.
  3. Baltimore Ravens (1-4): They’ve been in every game this season, which means they can’t close.  Not good.  IN the latest collapse, Baltimore held a 12-point lead, at home, against a Browns team they’d defeated 13 of the last 14 times they’d played.  Joe Flacco ran for two scores to go with Justin Forsett’s two on the ground, and somehow it wasn’t enough.  The defense allowed Luke McCown to throw for a franchise record 457 yards, the run game to add a score and four field goals, including the game winner in OT.  The Ravens are fairly healthy and yet they find themselves in the cellar after five weeks.

Most Surprising Performances of Week 5

  1. New York Giants (3-2): I picked them to beat the Niners, and they did, but it wasn’t what I thought it would be.  The best rush defense in the league allowed San Francisco to stay on the field too often.  And to let the worst scoring team in the league hang 27 on them, thanks to a nice passing game by run-first QB Colin Kaepernick.  Eli Manning made a few mistakes, but he was on point most of the night including another 4th quarter comeback for a huge passing night.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): Mike Vick wasn’t great until the fourth quarter.  The defense wasn’t great but it made the stops when necessary to allow Le’Veon Bell, who was great the whole game, to get it over the goal line with the walk-off touchdown to upset the Chargers.  Pittsburgh is doing what it needs to do without Roethlisberger, and stay afloat in the wild card picture.
  3. Denver Broncos (5-0):They own the Raiders on the road, but they were less than impressive on offense yet again.  Peyton Manning was picked off twice, and their own touchdown came on defense.  It’s that defense that continues to win them games, but they’re going to need help if they want to stay undefeated.

Byes: Cowboys, Raiders, Rams and Buccaneers

I went 8-6 in week 5, bringing my season total up to 45-37.  Now here are my week 6 picks.

Thursday Night Football

  • Falcons @ Saints:Atlanta is now 5-0, and completed their sweep of the NFC East this past week, but it was their worst game to date.  Another huge effort from Devonta Freeman saved the Falcons perfect start.  As for their division foes, the Saints were a no-show against the Eagles a week after picking up their first win of the season.  New Orleans can win this game; I just don’t think they will. ATLANTA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Redskins @ Jets:Washington did a pretty good job of containing the Falcons early in week 5, but then Freeman broke free and broke often.  Look for Chris Ivory to take advantage coming off a career high performance in week 4 against the Dolphins. NEW YORK WINS
  • Cardinals @ Steelers: Both teams are feeling good about themselves after week 5, particularly on defense.  The Steelers offense did enough this past week, but Arizona has been far more consistent in both the running and passing game than Pittsburgh.  I like that balance in this game, even if it is a Cardinals road game.ARIZONA WINS
  • Chiefs @ Vikings:Kansas City is a team in decline, while the Vikings are on the rise.  Minnesota is only 2-2, and are pretty even when it comes to points scored vs points allowed, but they’ve shown they can rise to the occasion and that Adrian Peterson can get back to where he was before the suspension.  Without Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith needs to find a way in the passing game to overcome a less than stellar defense. Give me the home team in a close one. MINNESOTA WINS
  • Bengals @ Bills:Cincinnati is doing almost everything right, while Buffalo has been one of the league’s most inconsistent teams.  The Bengals found a way against one of the league’s best defenses, and they face another tough task this week. But they’ve limited mistakes and are excelling on both sides of the ball.  Buffalo’s offense at this point is basically Tyrod Taylor as they’ve been ravaged by injury at the running back position.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills defense wins this one for them, but I am taking the Bengals to stay undefeated another week. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Bears @ Lions:DETROIT WINS
  • Broncos @ Browns: Peyton Manning is having an awful start to the 2015 season, and yet his team is 5-0 for the seventh time in his career.  This is in large part thanks to one of the best defenses he’s ever had CLEVELAND WINS
  • Texans @ Jaguars: The winner will still have a lot of work to do, while the loser will have the AFC South cellar all to themselves.  Jacksonville showed signs, particularly on defense to end last season, but they’ve been pretty bad all-around to start this year.  The Texans QB carousel continues, with Brian Hoyer doing good things to end last week when he came in for Ryan Mallet.  Look for Arian Foster to show up in his second game back from injury, mixed in with some help from JJ Watt, and I think the Texans will get their second win of the season. HOUSTON WINS
  • Dolphins @ Titans:Both teams enter with 1-3 records, though Tennessee sits in second in their division while the Dolphins are two games out in the AFC East.  The Titans point differential is actually positive, though most of that stems from their 52 point shellacking of Tampa in week 1.  As for Miami, they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league through 5 weeks, and their defense isn’t doing them any favors.  This is a good game for Miami to get going on offense since the Titans haven’t been good defensively, but with their own defensive struggles, I expect a shootout.  I liked Miami to challenge for a wildcard spot before the season, and if they want to turn their season around, they have to start now.  So give me the fins on the road in an ugly, high scoring affair. MIAMI WINS

Sunday 4/4:25 PM Games

  • Panthers @ Seahawks:It’s a battle of a defense on the rise, and a defense in flux. The two time defending NFC Champs have struggled to stay consistent on either side of the ball.  Thomas Rawls has done a nice job on the ground for the Seahawks in the absence of Marshawn Lynch, but the offense as a whole has been disappointing.  The defense has been better since Kam Chancellor came back in week 3, but they’ve shown weaknesses, particularly in the secondary, that we’re not used to seeing.  As for Carolina, they’re 4-0 and coming off a bye. They’ve been great on both sides of the ball, though the defense is doing most of the heavy lifting.  The Panthers are a top 10 scoring offense, despite only 729 yards of offense in their first four games. The Hawks tend to respond after bad losses, and for that reason, I think they take advantage of the Panthers one dimensional offense and pick up a win at home. SEATTLE WINS
  • Chargers @ Packers:Green Bay is still undefeated, but they haven’t looked great on offense the last two weeks.  Aaron Rodgers threw his first interception at home since 2012 last week, and then threw another while losing a fumble.  As for the Chargers, they looked like they’d get a much needed road win, then coughed it up.  While Philip Rivers has been pretty good this season, Aaron Rogers has been better, and has a far better defense.  GREEN BAY WINS
  • Ravens @ 49ers:Both teams need a win in the worst way.  The Ravens are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Browns, while the Niners had their best showing offensively since week 1, but lost on a last second touchdown in week 5. I really don’t like anything about either of these two teams this season, and while the 49ers defense has shown flashes, I still like Baltimore simply because they put up points more consistently than San Francisco. BALTIMORE WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Colts: Indianapolis has gotten lucky of late, without actually having Luck, something you do need in this league. New England hasn’t needed luck yet this season.  They’re easily taking out opponents with a good combo of offense and defense.  With Andrew Luck back at practice, the Pats could have him to combat with, though he wasn’t great before the injury.  I’m tired of picking undefeated teams, especially on the road, but I have to again this week. NEW ENGLAND WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Giants @ Eagles:Who would’ve thought this match-up would be an early battle lead in the NFC East after both teams started out the season a combined 0-5?  New York has played one clean game, and that was against Buffalo, yet they’re alone atop the division heading into this game.  They probably played their worst game defensively this past week, but Eli Manning helped pick up his team.  Philly got its run game going, and could look to exploit an ailing Giants defense.  But I don’t think they will do enough to get to .500.  I’ll take the road team to win their fourth straight. NEW YORK WINS
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NFL: Week 5 Thoughts

5 down. 12 to go.  And we still have 3 win-less teams, as well as 3 undefeated squads.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Tampa Bay were all on their bye weeks.

I’m deviating from breaking this down by record.  Now that we’ve come to week 5, division races are starting to take shape.  So let’s take a look around the league that way.

NFC EAST (The Under .500 Club)

  • Cowboys: Tony Romo had the best game of his career, becoming the 1st Dallas QB to throw for over 500 yards. But a late second interception led to a Broncos game-winning field-goal and a loss. But don’t focus on another Romo turnover.  When you put up 48 points, you should win.  The defense just couldn’t stop Peyton Manning.  To be fair no one has yet this year.  (2-3)
  • Eagles:  Michael Vick went down with a hamstring injury in the 1st half, but Nick Foles didn’t miss a beat. Kicker Alex Henery shook off a shaky start to his season by completing all 5 of his field-goal attempts. (2-3)
  • Redskins: Bye week. (1-3)
  • Giants: The good news? The offense looked a little better.  The bad news?  They didn’t look good enough, with 4 more turnovers, 3 of which came courtesy of Eli Manning in the 4th quarter.  The run-game remained anemic, and the defense generated absolutely no pass-rush once again. Changes need to come, and quick. (0-5)

NFC NORTH (Too Close to Call)

  • Lions: After a big win over Chicago last week, the offense sputtered without Calvin Johnson in the lineup against Green Bay. The running back tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell couldn’t help Matt Stafford and the pass game either.  (3-2)
  • Bears: It wasn’t a horrible performance by the defense a week after allowing 40 to Detroit.  But they couldn’t get much going on offense.  Aside from a huge day from wide-receiver Alshon Jeffery, who caught 10 balls for 218 yards and a touchdown, Chicago couldn’t do capitalize.  Jay Cutler’s two fumbles, 1 which was lost didn’t help.  (3-2)
  • Packers: It wasn’t the prettiest game, but a win’s a win. Most of the offense came from the leg of Mason Crosby, who kicked 5 field goals.  Aaron Rodgers did connect on a long TD pass to James Jones to pull away in the 3rd quarter. (2-2)
  • Vikings: Coming off their bye week, they’ll have a new QB on the roster after signing Josh Freeman, who was released last week by the Bucs.  (1-3)

NFC SOUTH (The Saints Are Running Away) 

  • Saints: After starting last year 0-4, the turnaround in New Orleans has been a big one.  One of the final 3 unbeatens, Drew Brees is having a great start to his year, as is the defense.  Jimmy Graham tied an NFL record held by Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez with his 4th straight 100-yard game as a tight-end. Graham accomplished this feat back in 2011 as well. (5-0)
  • Carolina: Cam Newton had a very bad day Sunday against the Cardinals.  The mobile QB did manage to throw for over 300 yards, but was also picked off 3 times, took a safety and was sacked 7 times.  The defense had an okay day, but that many turnovers is hard to overcome. (1-3)
  • Atlanta: They came from 13 down to take a 1-point lead with less than 2 to play.  Really they should’ve been up 4, but somehow instead of kicking a field goal to end the 1st half to get within 7, the Falcons instead chose to go for it on 4th and goal and were stuffed. For the first time in his career, Matt Ryan loses back to back games at home, and are now essentially 5 games out of 1st. (1-4)
  • Tampa Bay: Bye Week. (0-4)

NFC WEST (The Most Improved Division?)

  • Seahawks: They suffered their first loss of the season, a shootout loss with the comeback kids, the Colts.  Going back even further, it was their first regular season loss since November 25th of last season.  Russell Wilson had 300+ total yards in the loss, including 102 yards rushing. (4-1)
  • 49ers: Another easy win for San Fran, this time coming against a Houston team that is struggling big time.  Tramaine Brock’s pick six of Matt Schaub on the first pass of the game was all the niners needed in the 34-3 win on Sunday Night football. (3-2)
  • Cardinals: Their defense was the real star against Carolina, picking up 7 sacks, a safety and three interceptions.  Carson Palmer’s day was nothing to write home about, neither was the run game, but they did enough to win thanks to short field position.  (3-2)
  • Rams: A good game on all ends versus the now 0-5 Jaguars. Sam Bradford threw for 3 touchdowns, including 2 to Austin Pettis. The run game was pretty good as well.  Big plays were the name of the game, including Matt Giordano’s 82 yard interception return for a touchdown. (2-3)

AFC EAST (You Can’t Just Hand New England the Division Anymore)

  • Patriots: They still lead the division, but they picked up their 1st loss of the year thanks to a shutdown Bengals defense.  It was a low scoring game, something we’re not seeing from New England.  And that’s because  Tom Brady did something he hadn’t done in 52 games, he didn’t throw a touchdown.  (4-1)
  • Dolphins: A 13-6 halftime lead wasn’t enough to save Miami from their second loss of the year.  In a game of field-goals, Caleb Sturgis missed from 57-yards to tie the score with 33 seconds to go.  The run game was non-existent, with starter Lamar Miller picking up just 15 yards on the ground. (3-2)
  • Jets: Geno Smith continues to show growth in his rookie season, leading his team on a game winning drive with under 2 minutes to play. The defense was lock down in the 1st half, but showed some holes in the redzone late.  But it’s a big road win none-the-less. (3-2)
  • Bills: Not only did they lose their game with Cleveland, they lost starting QB EJ Manuel.  On a scramble in the 1st half, Manuel took a hit to the knee, and suffered an LCL sprain, which could sideline him for up 6 weeks.  Fellow rookie QB Jeff Tuel came in for Manuel, but didn’t look very good.  The run game was on point, but it wasn’t enough on the road. (2-3)

AFC NORTH (Where Almost Everyone is 3-2)

  • Ravens: Justin Tucker had himself a day, going 4-4 on his field-goal attempts, including the game winner with 1:42 to go. Joe Flacco wasn’t a whole lot better than his 5-interception performance last week, but Ray Rice finally showed up on the ground, running in for 2 touchdowns.  (3-2) 
  • Browns: Three straight wins, despite losing QB Brian Hoyer to knee injury.  Brandon Weedon lost the starting job to Hoyer when he went down with an injury, but returned to help lead Cleveland to another win. (3-2)
  • Bengals: The offense wasn’t great, but their defense pitched a Brady shutout.  Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis ran in a 1-yarder for the games only touchdown in the 4th quarter. (3-2)
  • Pittsburgh: Coming off their bye (0-4)

AFC South (Houston We Have a Problem) 

  • Colts: Another impressive win for Indy, this time handing Seattle their first loss of the year.  Andrew Luck continues to show why he was the number 1 pick in last year’s draft, leading his team for a 9th career comeback win.  The special teams for both squads showed up, including Delano Howell who scored for Indy on a 61-yard return touchdown of a blocked field goal.  (4-1)
  • Titans: Tennessee lost, but put up a good fight against the undefeated Chiefs.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, in place of the injured Jake Locker, ran in a go-ahead TD in the 4th.  (3-2)
  • Texans: Ever since taking a 20-0 1st half lead in week 4 against Seattle, Houston has been outscored 57-3 in their 2 game losing streak. Matt Schaub threw a pick 6 for the fourth straight game (a 1st in NFL history), and was benched in favor of TJ Yates. (2-3)
  • Jaguars: Things have gone from bad to worse for the win-less Jags.  After getting starting QB Blaine Gabbert back, he left their loss to St Louis with a hamstring injury, and lost 1st round pick OT Luke Joeckel for the year to a broken ankle. Things don’t look better with the 5-0 Broncos coming to town. (0-5)

(AFC WEST) Where You’re Either Undefeated or a Game Under 

  • Broncos: This team has scored the most points through the first 5 games of a season in NFL History.  And yet they almost lost to Dallas.  The defense hasn’t needed to be on much this year, with Manning being so automatic (20 touchdowns, 1 rushing TD and just 1 interception).  But they couldn’t stop the run or the pass against Dallas, something they need to fix, because odds are Manning will struggle one of these days.  Maybe. (5-0)
  • Chiefs: Denver has company.  They got pushed by Tennessee, nearly blowing an early 14-0 lead.  But a Jamaal Charles touchdown in the 4th, apart of a 108-yard rushing performance, put them up for good. (5-0)
  • Raiders: Terrelle Pryor made it known Sunday Night that this is his team.  Two touchdown passes in the 1st quarter put San Diego in a hole they couldn’t climb out of.  The Raiders showed more faith in Pryor Monday, when they released off-season acquisition Matt Flynn. Their defense forced 4 turnovers, including one from veteran Free Safety Charles Woodson, who tied an NFL record with his 13th defensive touchdown. (2-3)
  • Chargers: The dilemma that is Phillip Rivers continues.  400 yards passing, but threw 3 interceptions.  This team was 2-0, and now find themselves at the bottom of the division. (2-3)

So that’s a wrap on week 5.  Week 6 kicks off with two desperate teams on Thursday Night Football.  The win-less New York Giants head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears.