NFL: Week 4 Picks

Week 4 and that means we get the first round of teams on their bye.  So we won’t see Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Seattle, St. Louis or the Cardinals, or 4 teams that have gotten off to great starts and two that haven’t.  I hate that byes start so early.  I can’t imagine how these teams feel, knowing they won’t get a break for the rest of the season.

I went 10-6 last week, moving me to 27-21 to start the season. I’ll take it, especially after going 7-9 in week 2.

Thursday Night Football

  • Giants @ Redskins: It’s an NFC East showdown to kick off week 4 of the NFL season.  Both teams enter action at 1-2, but are coming off very different games.  New York played the perfect game against a good defensive team in Houston to pick up their first win, while the Redskins lost in a shootout to the vision leading Philadelphia Eagles.  Sure Washington’s offense looked great, but their defense looked anything but.  The Giants could be 2-1 despite needing some time to adapt to their new offense.  So with that, I’m taking the road team to even up their record. NEW YORK WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Packers @ Bears: I’ve been disappointed with the Packers thus far, while Chicago has been impressive, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  But as someone who picked Green Bay to go far this season, I think they can turn it around, and though playing at Soldier Field is no picnic, I think they find a way and Aaron Rodgers gets back to looking like an MVP. GREEN BAY WINS
  • Bills @ Texans: Buffalo has been better than expected, while Houston looks to rebound off their first loss of the season.  This is going to be a defensive struggle.  Ryan Fitzpatrick looked off a week ago in New York, while EJ Manuel continues to grow.  So who makes the plays in the end?  Give me the home team. HOUSTON WINS
  • Titans @ Colts: Tennessee has been down right awful.  Indy took their early frustrations out on the Jaguars to avoid an 0-3 start.  To me, this one is simple.  Indianapolis is a better team, and they’re at home.  I like the Colts to even up their record at 2-2. INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Panthers @ Ravens: The winner of this one moves to 3-1.  With the fire-power in the NFC South, Carolina needs this one more than Baltimore.  The Ravens haven’t had too many issues succeeding without running back Ray Rice. I know Baltimore is the home team in this one, but I like Carolina in this one.  CAROLINA WINS
  • Buccaneers @ Steelers: Remember when everyone though Tampa was going to challenge for a playoff spot this year?  Yeah about that… Steelers get the victory at home. PITTSBURGH WINS
  • Dolphins @ Raiders: Charles Woodson said they were bad, and he wasn’t wrong. Oakland has scored the fewest points in the league through the first 3 weeks.  I’d say that doesn’t bode well for them, but the Dolphins have allowed the fourth most points in the league. Despite any possible QB controversy in Miami, they’re still a better team than Oakland.  MIAMI WINS
  • Lions @ Jets: Detroit is clicking on both sides of the football.  New York continues to be inconsistent.  I give the Jets a shot if Geno Smith can limit the mistakes, but against a hungry Lions defense, and possibly being without Eric Decker once more, I can’t see New York getting the win. I didn’t think the Jets would start 1-3, but that’s what I see happening.  DETROIT WINS

Sunday 4:05/4:25PM Games

  • Jaguars @ Chargers: The Blake Bortles era in Jacksonville has begun.  So that’s where Jacksonville is.  As for the Chargers, they look every bit as good as the second half team that forced its way into the playoffs a year ago. SAN DIEGO WINS
  • Eagles @ 49ers: Philly is one of 3-0 teams standing, while the 49ers are a disappointing 1-2.  But the Eagles defense was shown up by Washington a week ago, and they will be without their starting center, which won’t help LeSean McCoy get back on track. Many people felt going into the season that San Fran was poised to make another deep playoff run, and for that to happen, it has to start now.  And I think it does. SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Falcons @ Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater gets his first career start.  Atlanta looks to get back to the team they were in week 1 when they beat the Saints.  Matt Ryan has been quite good all season, and I think that gives them the edge. ATLANTA WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Saints @ Cowboys: If you asked me before the season which of these two teams would enter action at 1-2 and which at 2-1, I’d say the road team would be looking for an impressive 3-1 start.  But I’d have been wrong.  Dallas’ defense hasn’t looked as horrible as we all predicted, and both sides of New Orleans game hasn’t been what anyone thought through 3 weeks.  That being said, I just cannot see Drew Brees and company starting out 1-3. NEW ORLEANS WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Patriots @ Chiefs: Tom Brady has said the offense needs to step up.  Sure, it hasn’t looked like the high octane offense of the last few seasons, but even so, this team is still 2-1.  Kansas City on the other hand looks nothing like the team that started out 9-0 last season.  The fact that their defense isn’t what it was, coupled with New England being “due,” I’m going with the road team in this one. NEW ENGLAND WINS

There you have it scoreboard watchers.  Here’s to seeing who stays unbeaten, healthy and starts the road to recovery.  Enjoy the games!

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NFL: Week 3 Picks

So… can we get back to football now?  With so many off-the-field issues plaguing the NFL right now, it can be tough to focus on the game.  But the beat goes on and we are already entering week 3.  There are some very good teams at 0-2 including 2013 playoff teams the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts.  They have quite the uphill climb if they want to make the postseason this season, as just under 12% of teams that start 0-2 have made it in NFL History.

I went 7-9 in my picks last week, and move to 17-15 overall overall.  Now here’s my predictions for this week’s slate of games.

Thursday Night Football

  • Buccaneers @ Falcons: This is a tough game for me.  The Falcons aren’t as good as the team that beat the Saints in week one, and Tampa isn’t very good offensively.  So what gives?  A strong Bucs defense, or the home fans looking for another big win from their birds? Give me Atlanta in a close game.  ATLANTA WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Chargers @ Bills: Who had Buffalo getting out to a 2-0 start to the season? Not many.  But here they are looking to stay perfect at home.  San Diego meanwhile, is coming off an impressive 9-point win over the defending champion Seahawks. I’m not in love with either of these teams, but experience wins out here for the Chargers on the road in this one.  SAN DIEGO WINS
  • Cowboys @ Rams: Dan Bailey and a solid run game helped Dallas get their first victory of the year.  St. Louis found a way to get a comeback road win against a good defense.  Tony Romo hasn’t been good to start the year, and with a back injury that has had him miss practice this week, who knows what the Boys will be able to do against an upstart front 7 for the Rams.  That’s why I’m going with the home team on Sunday.  ST LOUIS WINS
  • Redskins @ Eagles: Philly likes to take a half to get things rolling.  Washington got going early and often against the Jags in week 2.  In this NFC match-up, the Eagles will continue to fly high at home and improve to 3-0.  PHILADELPHIA WINS
  • Texans @ Giants: The good news for big blue?  Eli Manning looked very good on Sunday.  The bad news, they shot themselves in the foot to drop to 0-2.  Now with JJ Watt and company in town, Manning needs his o-line to protect him better than they’ve done in years.  If they can do a decent job of this, I think, despite Houston looking worlds better than last season’s 2-14 squad, the Giants get win number 1 at home.  NEW YORK WINS
  • Vikings @ Saints: Adrian Peterson is on the exempt list, taking away Minnesota’s best weapon again.  New Orleans is a surprising 0-2, despite being in both games til the end.  No way the Saints lose 3-in-a-row to open the season, especially with this one in the Superdome.  And I’d say this even if AP was suiting up for the Vikings. NEW ORLEANS WINS
  • Titans @ Bengals: I think the Bengals are finally primed to advance in the playoffs.  It’s a home game.  That’s about all I can come up with for this game.  CINCINNATI WINS
  • Ravens @ Browns: Baltimore knows it can win without Ray Rice.  Cleveland knows it can win with Brian Hoyer.  So what sways the balance of power in this one?  The Browns are banged up at the skilled positions, to go along with missing Josh Gordon.  The Ravens have more weapons, and experience, even without Rice on the field. BALTIMORE WINS
  • Packers @ Lions: It’s an NFC North battle, and a battle to move above .500 on the young season.  Detroit has looked very good, and very bad this year, while the Packers were a badly timed called time out away from possibly falling to 0-2.  These are always hard fought games, and this will be no different.  And while I think the Lions are finally starting to put things together, I think Aaron Rodgers and company use their winning experience to get the road victory. GREEN BAY WINS
  • Colts @ Jaguars: I never thought Indy would be 0-2, but that’s what happens when your defense isn’t very good, and your quarterback looks average.  Andrew Luck is anything but average, and that’s the biggest reason I think the Colts get their first win.  Sure Jacksonville has an impressive defense, and are the home team, but I’m sticking with the reigning AFC West Champions.  INDIANAPOLIS WINS
  • Raiders @ Patriots: Charles Woodson called out his Oakland squad for their poor start.  Tom Brady hasn’t been very good to start the season and yet the Pats are 1-1.  So what gives?  Give me the Pats to be the Pats at home.  NEW ENGLAND WINS

Sunday 4:05/4:25PM Games

  • Niners @ Cardinals: San Fran is coming off a Sunday night collapse, while Arizona is without their running back Jonathan Dwyer as a part of the on-going domestic dispute arrests plaguing the league.  The Cardinals are 2-0, but wouldn’t be if not for New York gift-wrapping a week 2 win.  Arizona’s defense has been solid, but with Carson Palmer possibly out again, and the 49ers looking for redemption, I think San Francisco can eek out a road win and get to 2-1. SAN FRANCISCO WINS
  • Broncos @ Seahawks: It’s a Superbowl rematch as the defending champs look to shake off a loss to the Chargers in Week 2, and as Denver looks to stay undefeated on the young season.  I know it’s a home game for Seattle, but I’m taking a leap of faith that the Broncos use the Superbowl loss as fuel.  DENVER WINS
  • Chiefs @ Dolphins: Kansas City has gotten off to a horrible start as another playoff team that has started off 0-and-2.  Miami continues to be an up-and-down team.  So what gives?  I don’t think the Chiefs are as bad as they’ve looked on either side of the ball as they’ve shown in the first two weeks of the season, so I think Alex Smith finds a way to avoid an 0-3 start.  KANSAS CITY WINS

Sunday Night Football

  • Steelers @ Panthers:  Pittsburgh is 1-1, but after a fast start in the opener, they haven’t looked good for 6-straight quarters of football. Carolina has been very good, led by their vaunted defense, and in spite of a banged up Cam Newton. While it’s hard to win 3 games in a row in this league, I think Carolina does so, to improve to 3-0 on the young season.  CAROLINA WINS

Monday Night Football

  • Bears @ Jets:  The Jets were in a position to start 2-0, if not for a poorly timed called time-out, while Chicago needed a huge 2nd half performance on Sunday night to avoid an 0-2 start. In the end, both enter at 1-1.  As much as I loved the comeback from Chicago, I think the home crowd and the knowledge they blew a possible win couple to motivate the Jets to move their record to 2-1. NEW YORK WINS

Hope we can put the off-the-field story-lines to bed, and just enjoy some good games this weekend! Enjoy scoreboard watchers.