NFL: Week 4 Picks

Thursday Night Football

  • Bears @ Packers: The Bears first win of the season was one of the bigger shocks in a shocking week 3 for me. Sure they were at home, but they picked up a win over the Steelers, who looked great to start the season. It took overtime, but Jordan Howard was huge after being questionable all week. The Packers picked up their second win, but a trend is forming for Green Bay. They’ve needed second-half comebacks in each game this season to give themselves a chance. The fact that Chicago can control clock will make this closer than it should, but I’m taking the Pack on Thursday. GREEN BAY WINS

London Game

  • Saints @ Dolphins: New Orleans picked up their first win of the season, and in dominant fashion. The Saints were not scared of the Panthers defense, to the tune of 34 points. Miami fell to the Jets, and it wasn’t close. Jay Ajayi was rendered useless, and it took 3 quarters for the Dolphins to put up any points on the board.  The defense wasn’t terrible, so they can hang their hat on that.  So who gets the win across the pond this week? Drew Brees was able to complete passes to 9 different targets Sunday, which is hard to stop.  He’ll throw all over the Miami secondary again, and will get them to 2-2. NEW ORLEANS WINS

Sunday 1PM Games

  • Panthers @ Patriots: Carolina looks like a shell of the team that went to the Superbowl two seasons ago.  Cam Newton isn’t as mobile, and the defense isn’t making the stops they used to.  New England had a scare in week 3 and nearly fell at home to the Texans.  But as tends to happen, Tom Brady put the team on his back and got them the win. So while the Patriots defense hasn’t been Championship level through 3 games, I can’t see this game ending in any other fashion than as the Pats third straight victory. NEW ENGLAND WINS
  • Jaguars @ Jets: The Jaguars put up a dominating performance over Baltimore in London last week. Their defense held a Superbowl Champion in Joe Flacco to 28 yards passing, and the Ravens as a team to under 200 total yards of offense.  New York had a good week 3 as well, picking up their first win over Miami. They did a fantastic job stopping one of the best running backs in the league. They face a tough ground game again this week.  The Jets finally showed some fight, but I think Jacksonville has a better defense and more offensive weapons, and get the win this week. JACKSONVILLE WINS
  • Titans @ Texans: Tennessee held off a Seattle 4th quarter comeback to get their second win. The Titans gained over 400 yards of total yards, and nearly half came on the ground. They allowed the Seahawks to score 27, but they didn’t turn the ball over, and that’s something they’ll need to continue this week against Houston.  Unlike the Titans, the Texans were unable to hold off a furious second half comeback. Which team that scored 33 points a week ago will get the win this week? TENNESSEE WINS
  • Steelers @ Ravens: Baltimore was shutdown so badly in London, you’d think they hadn’t even shown up. Neither starting QB Joe Flacco nor backup Ryan Mallet could move the ball in the passing game, and the rushing attack was just as bad. Coupled with an inability to stop anyone on defense, and the Ravens looked like one of the worst teams in the league.  Pittsburgh had also looked strong in their first two weeks, only to lose to Chicago. The Steelers got owned on the ground, and that’s where the Ravens have to try to exploit them this weekend. I think Baltimore can make a better showing than they did in London, but I am still going with the road team in this game. PITTSBURGH WINS
  • Bengals @ Browns: Cincinnati came oh so close to their first win of the season last week, losing to Green Bay in overtime. After looking loss on both sides of the ball, the Bengals offense got going, with a big day from A.J. Green. For the second straight week, the Browns play another winless team.  They too almost got their first win in a shootout against the Colts, but their 14-3 run in the 4th quarter wasn’t enough. Can they avoid another giving another team their first win of the season, and get their own? I don’t think so. While Cleveland succeeded in the redzone, their defense was picked apart by Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton, and I expect more of the same with Green and Dalton this week. CINCINNATI WINS
  • Lions @ Vikings: After coming back down to earth in week 2, the Vikings got back to dominating both sides of the ball in week 3.  Stefon Diggs reappeared in a big way on offense, and Minnesota’s defense held down a very good Bucs offense. The Lions lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Falcons, with a questionable call on a possible game winning touchdown by Golden Tate with :08 seconds left. They’ve proven that they can go toe-to-toe with whatever team they play so far, and this week will be no different. But I think the results will be the same for Detroit; a close loss. MINNESOTA WINS
  • Rams @ Cowboys: Los Angeles’ offense was explosive on Thursday Night, thanks to a big first half by Todd Gurley, who picked up 3 touchdowns.  The defense wasn’t great, allowing a poor offensive squad to score 39 points.  Dallas did a very good job holding down the Cardinals (other than Larry Fitzgerald) and finally got something out of Ezekiel Elliot on the ground.  I like the Rams team this season, but the Cowboys can, and will take another positive step after their week 3 win. DALLAS WINS
  • Bills @ Falcons: Superbowl hangover? The Falcons are asking what that is as they enter week 4 as one of the two undefeated teams in the league. After a slow offensive start, Atlanta has scored 30 points in their last two games and look strong.  Buffalo got a nice win over Denver in week 3, thanks in large part to their defense bending, but not breaking to the tune of 3 field goals and a touchdown.  Their run game wasn’t what you’d want, but they played a clean game, which is always huge.  While I think the Bills defense can hold the Falcons down, I don’t think they’ll do it as well as they did last week. I’m taking the home team in this one. ATLANTA WINS
 
Sunday 4/4:25PM Games
  • Eagles @ Chargers: Philadelphia won in walk-off fashion against their division foes in week 3, on a 61-yard field goal from rookie kicker Jake Elliot. They were lucky to escape with the win, having made a number of questionable calls and blowing a two touchdown lead. As for the Chargers, they fell to 0-3 in their worst showing of the season. Down two touchdowns 10 minutes into the game was too much to overcome. Philip Rivers couldn’t help his cause, as he threw 3 interceptions and no touchdowns. So can the Chargers get their first win of the season or will the Eagles improve to 3-1? Give me the San Diego at home to right the ship and take advantage of Philly mistakes. LOS ANGELES WINS
  • 49ers @ Cardinals: San Fran put up a fight on Thursday night, scoring more than 3 times the points than they had combined in weeks 1 and 2. They got a pretty good day from Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon in the passing game, but couldn’t stop the Rams rushing attack. In the end, all it meant was an 0-3 start for the Niners. The Cardinals also had a very good day in the air, with a big day from Larry Fitzgerald.  Despite dominating the time of possession, Arizona could not stop the Cowboys in the fourth quarter, and fell at home. Who gets back on track? The Niners have done a better job stopping the pass than the run so far this season, and without their best back, that could be a problem for the Cards. That being said, the Cards can stop the pass too. I see a bounce back at home and an 0-4 start for the Niners. ARIZONA WINS
  • Giants @ Buccaneers: It took til the 4th quarter of week for New York to take their first lead of the season, but it was short-lived. They would drop to 0-3 thanks to a 61-yard field-goal.  They’re averaging just over 12 points a game, next to last in the league, and have given up nearly twice as many as they score. Tampa fell to the Vikings on the road, thanks in big part to turnovers and an inability to stay on the field. Both teams have potent passing attacks, and while I had high hopes for the Giants this season, give me the Bucs to get their second win of the year. TAMPA BAY WINS
  • Raiders @ Broncos: This AFC West match-up is a battle to stay on pace with the division leading Chiefs. Tied for second with 2-1 records, these two are both coming off their first losses of the season in week 3.  Denver and Oakland were both held in check offensively on the road. Neither team got much going on the ground.  The Broncos were at least able to sustain drives, they just couldn’t finish them. This game could be a defensive struggle, and I give the edge to the home team. DENVER WINS
Sunday Night Football
  • Colts @ Seahawks: Indianapolis was another team to get their first win in week 3.  They’ll try to get their second without starting QB Andrew Luck, who will now miss at least the first month of the season due to injury.  T.Y. Hilton had a huge game to help their cause.  Seattle on the other hand, looked its best this season on offense, but struggled to stop the Titans, losing their second game in the process. They scored more points in week 3 than the first two combined. Despite their issues on defense in week 3, they’ve got the ability to stop the Colts offense, and that’s why the Seahawks will win on Sunday Night. SEATTLE WINS
Monday Night Football
  • Redskins @ Chiefs: This is one of the better match-ups this weekend. Washington looked as good as it has in years last week against the Raiders, holding a very good offense to 136 yards. Kirk Cousins had a field day passing, and helped his team easily pick up their second win of the year. Kansas City is the other undefeated team heading into week 4, and for good reason.  They’re getting great play on both sides of the ball, and have been able to control time of possession. Rookie back Kareem Hunt is off to a historic start on the ground. The Chiefs have proven the ability to win both high scoring and close games. This should be a close game based on how good the Redskins were last week, but I like the Chiefs at home to improve to 4-0. KANSAS CITY WINS

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